James Bosworth on the "Orange Wave" Happening Across Latin America

James Bosworth, a long-time analyst of Latin American politics via his Latin America Risk Report newsletter, joins Odd Lots to explain recent political shifts in the region. He describes an "orange shift"—right-leaning leaders aligning with the Trump administration—amid U.S. interventions like the removal of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela and rising focus on the Western Hemisphere. Leaders vary widely, facing economic pressures from higher oil prices tied to the Iran conflict, while U.S. policy emphasizes personal deals over doctrines.

The Orange Shift and Its Divisions

Bosworth contrasts the current rightward pivot with the 2000s "pink tide" of leftists like Hugo Chávez and Lula da Silva, where divides existed between autocrats and democrats. Today's "orange" leaders, who attended Trump's Shield of the Americas conference, share Trump alignment but differ internally: Nayib Bukele prioritizes security crackdowns, while figures like Jair Bolsonaro's son Flávio embody populist spectacle. Latin America swings like a pendulum—left to right and back—defying monolithic waves. Leaders reacted positively to Maduro's ouster, as he had alienated even former supporters through stolen elections (2018, 2024) and economic collapse. Delcy Rodríguez, a pragmatic Chavista elite (involved in corruption, drugs, imprisonment), cut a deal with Trump: U.S. firms handle Venezuelan oil sales via U.S