How War in Iran Will Squeeze America's Farmers Even Further

March 19, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

American farmers face intensifying squeezes from flat crop prices since 2016 amid rising input costs, with recent fertilizer spikes tied to tensions in Iran exacerbating an already tight situation. Hosts Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway speak with Jeff Kazan and Mike Rolfson of AgVis Academy, veterans of Cargill and agribusiness who now educate farmers on risk management and grain merchandising. Drawing from their work with nearly 400 North American farms, the guests detail the economics, decisions, and strategies shaping the sector.

Pre-Existing Cost Pressures

Even before the fertilizer surge from potential Strait of Hormuz disruptions, farmers operated on thin margins. Corn futures prices have held steady since 2016, while land values doubled, equipment costs rose 40%, and expenses like health insurance climbed with general inflation. Land rent often claims half of production costs—around $500 per acre for prime Midwest farmland—pushed up by investor demand treating it like gold rather than cash-flow assets, with cap rates as low as 2% banking on endless appreciation.

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What you'll learn

1 (03:04) **Episode Intro and Farmer Squeeze Context** - Hosts discuss ongoing farmer complaints, hollowing out of small farms, and recent fertilizer price surge amid Iran tensions
2 (05:50) **Guest Introduction: Agris Academy Founders** - Jeff Kazan and Mike Rolfson return, explain their education/consulting firm for ag risk management and merchandising
3 (08:44) **Current Ag Calendar and Fertilizer Timing** - Late Southern Hemisphere harvest; early US corn planting started; ~75% nitrogen fertilizer already secured pre-spike
4 (11:30) **Pre-Spike Macro Conditions (Jan/Feb 2026)** - Stagnant crop futures since 2016 vs. doubled land prices, 40% equipment hikes, rising living costs
5 (12:56) **Land Costs as Primary Squeeze** - #1 expense (~50% of $1000/acre corn cost); rents bid up to zero margins for scale
6 (14:58) **Crop Insurance Stabilizes High Land Values** - Heavily subsidized "call option" hedges downside, keeps upside; enables high rents
7 (21:26) **Owning vs. Renting Land Dynamics** - Mix of owned/rented; strategic buys only; $15k/acre prime land can't cash flow at 10% cap

+ Full timestamped outline available in the app

Show Notes

America’s farmers can’t seem to catch a break. Years of thin margins and rising costs have already stretched them to the limit. And now, war with Iran is making things even harder. The conflict is driving up global energy and fertilizer prices, pushing producers into tough decisions about what to plant and at what price to sell. At the same time, farmers are still dealing with the impact of tariffs, rising land costs, and stiff competition from agricultural powerhouses like Brazil. On this episode, we’re joined again by Jeff Kazin and Mike Rohlfsen, founders of Agris Academy, which advises farmers on managing risk. They walk us through how global turmoil reaches all the way into the US heartland and into the American food supply.

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