AI Summary
5 min readWhen the US and Europe Drift Apart, China Wins
Gina Raimondo, the former Commerce Secretary, has a blunt message for European leaders who are angry at the Trump administration: "Cozying up with China is bad for you. Arguably it's worse for you than us." Speaking at a live Odd Lots event in April 2025, Raimondo described a situation where US-European relations are dangerously thin, and the economic consequences are already visible. Chinese imports to Europe have surged 20-30% year over year, and the German industrial base — its chemical giants, its automotive titans — is getting crushed. The mechanism is familiar: China subsidizes, dumps cheap products into global markets, distorts prices, and makes it impossible for domestic producers to compete. Raimondo's warning is that a weak European economy is not just Europe's problem. It is America's problem too.
The Alliance Dilemma
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What you'll learn
- 1 (02:23) **Introduction & Guest Welcome** - Jill and Tracy introduce Gina Raimondo, former Commerce Secretary and Governor of Rhode Island, at a live CFR event.
- 2 (03:35) **Thinning Ice: US-Europe Relations** - Raimondo assesses the current state of US-Europe ties as fragile, with European patience wearing thin.
- 3 (05:01) **Why Europe Matters for US-China Competition** - Raimondo argues the US cannot effectively compete with China without allies, including Europe.
- 4 (07:22) **The Crushing of European Industry** - Focus on the under-discussed industrial damage to Europe, particularly Germany.
- 5 (09:41) **The US Role in European Tech & Industry** - Raimondo advocates for working with allies to shore up supply chains, not trying to do everything alone.
- 6 (13:19) **The Politics of the Alliance** - Raimondo acknowledges the political difficulty for European leaders dealing with Trump's insults.
- 7 (16:21) **Talking to Businesses About China** - Raimondo distinguishes between safe trade and national security risks.
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Guests on this episode
Show Notes
The relationship between the US and Europe is deteriorating along both security and economic dimensions. The Trump administration has imposed tariffs, while also being sharply critical of NATO allies. So what are European leaders to do? Hope things go back to normal in the US? Or perhaps become closer with China? Our guest on this episode says the latter would be a grave mistake. This episode was recorded live on April 1 at the DC headquarters of the Council on Foreign Relations. We spoke with Gina Raimondo, now a CFR Distinguished Fellow, who previously served as the commerce secretary in the Biden Administration, and prior to that was the governor of Rhode Island. She discusses her view that European industry is being hollowed out by China, and that the only path forward is a global, unified, non-China trading bloc, which is an idea that's being thwarted by the Trump administration. We also talk about the legacy of the CHIPS Act, and her fears about AI creating mass unemployment and destabilizing our democracy.
Read more:
US Lawmakers Propose Crackdown on Chip Tool Sales to China
Cheap Chinese Cars Are Waiting on Detroit's Doorstep
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