Deutsche Bank's Ozan Tarman and Aditya Singhal on Understanding the Macro Risks

The discussion between Ozan Tarman and Aditya Singhal centers on how markets continue to advance amid layered geopolitical and policy risks. They describe a trading environment where headline volatility is constant, yet positioning and earnings trends have sustained upward moves in equities. The guests emphasize structural themes over short-term noise, particularly the ongoing rebalancing between Western and Chinese spheres of influence.

Handling headlines and building positions

Traders sort through conflicting news by maintaining thematic views across rates, currencies, credit, equities, and commodities rather than reacting to individual items. When pricing in areas such as the rates market reaches levels that appear detached from fundamentals, participants shift to longer-term scenario analysis. They define upside and downside outcomes based on acceptable drawdowns and available capital, then hold positions until clearer resolution emerges. This approach limits exposure to rapid reversals from events like tariff announcements or regional conflicts, since two opposing headlines can arrive within minutes.

The China-West rebalancing and its market effects