AI Summary
5 min readThe 1997–98 El Niño was, at the time, one of the strongest on record. It caused an estimated $36 billion in immediate economic losses from floods, droughts, and fires. But according to research by Justin Mankin, a professor of geography at Dartmouth and director of the Climate Modeling and Impacts Group, that number misses the real story. When Mankin and his collaborator Chris Callahan studied the long-term effects of that event, they found that global economic output was still depressed five years later — to the tune of $5.7 trillion. Not a one-time shock that economies bounce back from, but a permanent downward shift in the growth trajectory. And now, forecasters are converging on a prediction that the El Niño currently unfolding could be even bigger.
What El Niño Actually Is
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What you'll learn
- 1 (02:15) **What Is an El Niño and Why Should Investors Care?** - Hosts Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal introduce the topic: a potentially record-breaking El Niño that is already showing up in sell-side economics notes from Citi, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America, signaling real economic and market impacts.
- 2 (05:55) **Guest Introduction: Justin Mankin on the Physics of El Niño** - Justin Mankin, professor of geography at Dartmouth and director of the Climate Modeling and Impacts group, joins to explain what El Niño actually is and why this one is different.
- 3 (08:44) **Why El Niño Happens and How We Predict It** - Mankin explains the geophysical drivers of El Niño’s semi-regular cycle and how forecast models are converging on a record event.
- 4 (18:28) **Ancient El Niño Forecasting: Peruvian Potato Farmers and the Pleiades** - A fascinating detour into folk meteorology showing that humans have been anticipating El Niño for centuries without modern instruments.
- 5 (21:19) **How We Measure a “Record” El Niño** - Mankin explains the metrics used to benchmark El Niño strength and why the definition of “normal” is shifting due to global warming.
- 6 (25:21) **Timing Matters: Why This El Niño’s Peak Is Particularly Problematic** - The expected fall/winter peak of this El Niño coincides with critical agricultural and economic periods, with effects already manifesting.
- 7 (31:02) **The Economic Costs of El Niño: From Level Shocks to Growth Trajectories** - Mankin introduces his research (with Chris Callahan) showing that El Niño doesn’t just cause temporary economic disruptions—it permanently depresses growth.
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Show Notes
Every few years, weather nerds and agriculture analysts will talk about an upcoming El Niño, and then they mostly pass by with relatively few headlines. But sometimes El Niños end up being massively destabilizing -- leading to devastating droughts, flooding, and other catastrophes. And this year's emerging El Niño could end up being one of the big ones, with forecasters predicting record-breaking intensity. But what exactly is an El Niño, and what does it mean that this year's could be so big? On this episode, we speak with Justin Mankin, professor of geography at Dartmouth and director of the Climate Modeling and Impacts Group. We discuss the forecasting of El Niños, and why they can lead to large and long-lasting economic damage.
Read more:
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