AI Summary
5 min readOpening paragraph
In a wide-ranging conversation, Andrew Page and Scott Phillips dissected the failed $44 billion float of Australian AI data centre operator Fermus, examined what Glencore's dual listing on the ASX says about Australia's market character, and explored how 23.5-hour trading on US exchanges could eventually make local stock exchanges irrelevant. Along the way, they wrestled with where value actually gets captured in the AI infrastructure chain, why IPOs are structurally dangerous for most investors, and why monopoly incumbents like the ASX itself may finally face genuine competition.
The Fermus float: a rational market says no
Fermus, an Australian company building data centres specialised for artificial intelligence, attempted to list on the ASX at a valuation of $44 billion. The business had two operational facilities and plans for another five to seven. Just days before the float was due, institutional backers pulled support and the listing collapsed.
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What you'll learn
- 1 (01:03) **Fermus IPO Collapse** - The hosts break down why the $44 billion AI data-center float failed to get away on the ASX, calling it a pivotal moment for Australian capital markets.
- 2 (10:53) **Lessons from the IPO Flop** - Using the Guzman y Gomez and Facebook IPOs as examples, the hosts argue that investors should almost never buy on day one.
- 3 (14:57) **"If You Genuinely Have a Good Opportunity, You're Okay"** - The hosts reframe the "flop" narrative, arguing that a failed IPO is not a business failure.
- 4 (15:54) **Glencore Dual Lists on the ASX** - The hosts discuss why the global mining giant chose to list in Australia without raising any new capital.
- 5 (16:45) **Fermus vs. Glencore: What It Says About the ASX** - The hosts compare the two events to ask whether Australia's market is structurally biased toward mining and banks over tech.
- 6 (18:11) **The Value Chain: Where Is the Bottleneck?** - The hosts pivot to a broader investing thesis about where value is actually captured in the AI boom.
- 7 (20:25) **NextDC: A Case Study in Being Wrong (and Right)** - The hosts use NextDC's share price halving since June to illustrate the difficulty of timing commodity businesses.
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Guests on this episode
Show Notes
– A post mortem (of sorts) on Firmus
– … and Glencore lists here
– The value of the value chain
– 23/5 trading is coming… to the ASX?
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