Mailbag, incl: What to do if you’re sure there’s a crash coming? October 11, 2026

October 10, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

“I promise you I’m a deeply positive human. But my question won’t look like it.” That’s how Matt, signing off as “Matt Barking Mad,” opens his question to Motley Fool Money hosts Scott Phillips and Andrew “Ram” Page. He is, he says, “totally convinced there is reckless fiscal vandalism globally” and that a massive downturn is “absolutely inevitable and probably soon.” The hosts spend the bulk of this mailbag episode wrestling with his challenge: if you are sure a crash is coming, why is the advice still not to sell and sit in cash?

The trap of conviction and the cost of waiting

Scott and Ram do not dismiss Matt’s macro concerns. Ram calls them “a big mess” and says he agrees with “most of it.” But they push back hard on the idea that conviction alone is a reliable investment strategy. Scott warns that the more certain you become about a specific outcome, the more you risk slipping into ideology rather than objective assessment. “Certainty is where money goes to die,” he says.

Continue reading the full summary in the app — free to try.

Read Full Summary →

Free • No credit card required

Listen to Audio Summary Open in App

Never miss an episode of Motley Fool Money

Get every new episode summarized in your inbox — free, ~5 minutes to read.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.

What you'll learn

1 (00:02) **Opening Banter: 24/7 Trading and the Future of Stock Exchanges** - The hosts riff on long weekends, the inevitability of 24/7 trading, and what that means for global stock exchanges.
2 (07:15) **Kyle’s Question: Is a Paid-Off Home and Super Enough?** - A listener asks if focusing only on the mortgage and super, instead of an outside portfolio, is enough for retirement.
3 (17:32) **Low-Cost Index Funds vs. Stock Picking** - The hosts discuss when ETFs are a better choice than picking individual stocks.
4 (28:44) **Victor’s Question: Kogan’s CEO Remuneration Scheme** - A listener analyzes CEO Ruslan Kogan’s plan to take a $50k salary for five years in exchange for a $23m bonus if the share price doubles.
5 (43:46) **The Trap of Forced Growth** - The conversation pivots to a broader critique of companies that grow themselves broke by chasing expansion.
6 (60:31) **Matt’s Question: What to Do If You’re Sure a Crash Is Coming?** - A deeply worried listener asks why the advice is still to stay invested if a massive downturn seems inevitable.
7 (78:55) **Why “Prepare, Don’t Predict” Is the Better Strategy** - The hosts conclude that instead of trying to time a crash, investors should stress-test their portfolios for a downturn.

+ Full timestamped outline available in the app

Guests on this episode

Scott Phillips Andrew Page

Show Notes

– Is investing in ETFs inside Super enough?

– What are the pros and cons of Kogan’s incentive scheme?

– What to do if you’re sure there’s a crash coming?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.