The Bond Market Selloff is Showing up in Earnings Reports

August 18, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

The bond market is talking louder than it has in two decades, and it is starting to show up in earnings reports. The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield is at levels not seen since before the 2008 financial crisis, and government bond yields in Japan, the UK, and Europe are hitting multi-decade highs. This is not a repeat of 2008, but it is a structural shift that is reshaping the cost of capital for governments, corporations, and consumers alike.

What is Driving Long-Term Yields Higher?

The rise in long-term bond yields is primarily a market-driven phenomenon, not a direct result of Federal Reserve rate hikes. While the Fed controls short-term rates, the 30-year yield is set by investors. Two forces are pushing it up. First, there is a global glut of government debt. Investors see no end to budget deficits across the industrial world, and they are demanding more compensation for the added risk of holding that debt. Second, there is a lingering worry about the political independence of central banks. The Fed’s credibility is one of its best tools for keeping long-term rate expectations in check, and to the extent that credibility is eroded, it pushes yields higher.

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What you'll learn

1 (00:33) **The Bond Market Selloff** - Why yields are hitting multi-decade highs globally and what is driving them
2 (03:54) **The AI Data Center Debt Spiral** - How massive AI capex is changing the debt landscape
3 (07:10) **Is This a Crisis or a Crowd?** - The hosts assess the current risk level
4 (10:01) **Klarna's 21% Plunge** - Earnings breakdown for the fintech lender
5 (11:54) **Klarna: Macro Victim or Unproven Model?** - Why the market is punishing the stock
6 (17:39) **Home Depot's "Frozen Housing Market" Earnings** - The home improvement giant's resilient but stagnant quarter
7 (20:33) **Playing the Housing Bottom** - How the bond market affects the housing and home improvement thesis

+ Full timestamped outline available in the app

Show Notes

Most of the time, stock investors don’t pay attention to the bond markets. But when the words “not seen since 2007” start getting thrown around, investors start to look at lot harder at what’s going on with bonds. Lou, Matt, and Tyler dissect the recent moves in bond markets and how it’s showing up in stocks. Plus, Klarna’s and Home Depot’s earnings and how they are feeling the strains of the debt market.

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Tyler Crowe, Lou Whiteman, and Matt Frankel discuss:

- The selloff in bonds and how it’s affecting stocks
- Why AI companies are getting caught up in the bond market moves.
- Klarna’s earnings
- Home Depot’s earnings

Companies discussed: META, GOOG, MSFT, KLAR, HD

Host: Tyler Crowe
Guests: Matt Frankel, Lou Whiteman
Engineer: Kristi Waterworth

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