Investors Shoot for the Moon

October 19, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

Alphabet’s quantum computing team announced a new technique called “magic state cultivation” that reduces errors by 40x, while Quantinuum, a Honeywell spin-off, reported the lowest error rate ever for a quantum system—about five errors per million operations, ten times better than its own record from a month earlier. These are not just incremental improvements. They represent a shift in the quantum computing race from a physics problem to an engineering and manufacturing problem. But the path to a commercially useful quantum computer still requires orders of magnitude more progress, and the companies making that progress are structured very differently—one is a pure play, the other a moonshot option inside a giant diversified business. That distinction matters for investors, and it connects directly to a broader question: with venture capital pouring $150 billion into deep tech since the start of 2024, how should ordinary investors think about moonshots?

Quantum Computing: Qubits, Errors, and Magic States

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What you'll learn

1 (00:13) **Quantum Computing Breakthroughs: Quantinuum and Google** - John introduces two major quantum computing news items: Quantinuum's record error correction and Google's "magic state cultivation."
2 (07:27) **Investing in Quantum: Pure Play vs. Diversified Giant** - The hosts debate the investment merits of a pure-play quantum company versus a large tech conglomerate with a quantum division.
3 (11:35) **The Deep Tech Moonshot Boom** - The hosts discuss a massive surge in venture capital funding for "deep tech" and whether individual investors should follow suit.
4 (18:55) **Mailbag: Will Open-Source AI Burst the Big Tech Bubble?** - A listener named John asks if open-source AI models could cause a steep decline for Mag 7 companies like Google, Microsoft, and Amazon.

+ Full timestamped outline available in the app

Guests on this episode

Matt Frankel Tyler Crow

Show Notes

Description: The quantum computing space needs to make progress on error correction before quantum computers are useful, and in the past week, both Alphabet and Quantinuum have made announcements regarding substantial progress in this area. Jon, Matt, and Tyler break down this news before turning to the subject of moonshot investing. The team then closes out the episode with a question from the mailbag regarding the risk to big tech companies from open-source AI models.

Jon Quast, Matt Frankel, and Tyler Crowe discuss:
-Quantinuum’s record-breaking error correction
-Alphabet’s own quantum computing magic
-Novel power solutions
-The potential for electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL)
-The risk of open source AI for big tech
-Why today’s valuation doesn’t predict tomorrow’s profits

Companies discussed: Quantinuum (QNT), Alphabet (GOOG)(GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Meta Platforms (META)

Host: Jon Quast
Guests: Matt Frankel, Tyler Crowe
Engineer: Bart Shannon

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