Monetary Matters with Jack Farley
Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

Why The 30-Year Treasury Lost Its Biggest Buyers | David Busch on Why High Yields Are Attractive Right Now

September 19, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

Why the 30-Year Treasury Lost Its Biggest Buyers

David Busch, Chief Investment Officer of Trajan Wealth, joins Jack Farley to explain why long-dated Treasury yields have risen so sharply and what that means for investors. The 10-year yield has climbed about 60 basis points over six months, and the 30-year has moved even more dramatically. But the deeper story is about who is no longer buying these bonds—and what they are buying instead.

The Supply-Demand Problem in Long-Dated Treasuries

The natural buyers of 30-year Treasuries have traditionally been insurance companies, public pension plans, and sovereign wealth funds. These institutions need long-duration assets to match their long-duration liabilities. An insurance company, for example, might have an average liability duration of 23 years based on its policyholder pool, so it needs assets with similar duration.

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What you'll learn

  • 1 Why The 30-Year Treasury Lost Its Biggest Buyers | David Busch on Why High Yields Are Attractive Right Now
  • 2 (00:00) **Introduction** - Jack Farley introduces David Busch, CIO of Trajan Wealth, to discuss rising Treasury yields
  • 3 (00:29) **Why Yields Are Rising** - David identifies three causes: record supply, inflation pressures, and corporate debt crowding out
  • 4 (02:50) **When Rising Yields Become a Problem** - Higher rates compress equity risk premiums and raise corporate borrowing costs
  • 5 (04:13) **Can Stocks and Yields Keep Rising Together?** - Earnings growth from AI is currently offsetting rate pressure on equities
  • 6 (09:56) **Are Inflation Pressures Transitory or Secular?** - David argues inflation could ease if geopolitical tensions resolve, but retailers may keep prices high
  • 7 (11:56) **Who Will Buy Long-Dated Treasuries?** - The natural buyers (insurance companies, pensions) have shifted preferences

+ Full timestamped outline available in the app

Guests on this episode

Jack Farley

Show Notes

Jack Farley is joined by David Busch, Chief Investment Officer of Trajan Wealth, to discuss rising U.S. Treasury yields, persistent inflation, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory. Busch breaks down the structural drivers behind elevated bond yields, including $40 trillion in national debt, geopolitical energy shocks, and massive corporate debt issuance for AI infrastructure. He explains how higher interest rates and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s bond buyback program impact market liquidity and equity valuations. Moving to equities, Busch argues that software stocks like Intuit are heavily oversold regarding perceived AI disruption risks. He highlights the real bottleneck of the AI boom, pointing to critical supply needs in energy, rare earth minerals, and nuclear power. Busch also warns investors about hidden credit and liquidity dangers within private credit markets. Finally, he lays out why 3-to-5-year U.S. Treasuries still serve as an essential portfolio ballast in high-yield regimes.


Jack Farley on X https://x.com/JackFarley96

About David Busch https://trajanwealth.com/leadership/


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