Warren Pies: The Scramble for Compute Cures All Ills | Two Wolves of “Hockeysticking Earnings” and Hormuz Oil Shock (Plus Caliban)

May 4, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

“You can’t get a Blackwell GPU on demand,” Warren Pies says, pointing to a proprietary data set that tracks cloud-computing availability across GPU vintages. The red line on his chart has gone flat at zero percent availability for Nvidia’s newest chip. That scramble for compute, he argues, is the single most powerful force in markets right now—strong enough to override what he calls the “nightmare scenario” for an oil analyst: the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Pies, founder of 314 Research and the AI-powered research tool Caliban, joins Jack Farley on Monetary Matters to walk through the two competing forces he calls “the two wolves” of the current market. The first is the historic oil-supply crisis in the Persian Gulf, which by his calculation has created a roughly 10-million-barrel-per-day hole in global supply—three times larger than the worst-case fears that rattled markets during the Russia-Ukraine oil shock in 2022. The second is what he describes as a step-change in AI capability, confirmed by the leak of the Mythos frontier model and by his firm’s GPU availability data, which began collapsing in mid-March.

The earnings boom that isn’t coming off a crash

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What you'll learn

1 (00:00) **Introduction and the "Two Wolves" Framework** - Jack Farley introduces Warren Pies and the central tension of the episode: two powerful, opposing forces battling for control of the market.
2 (04:14) **The Earnings Boom: Scale and Legitimacy** - Warren details the unprecedented scale and anomalous nature of the current earnings estimate upgrades.
3 (07:22) **Addressing the "Top-Heavy" Earnings Pushback** - Warren counters the argument that the earnings boom is fake because it's driven by only a few sectors like semiconductors and oil.
4 (15:10) **Why AI, Not Oil or the Fed, is the Market's Story** - The conversation pivots to explain why AI dominates market discourse over traditional macro factors.
5 (17:28) **Breadth, Leadership, and the Path to 8,000** - Warren clarifies what constitutes healthy market breadth in the current AI-driven regime.
6 (22:20) **The Mythos Model and the Scramble for Compute** - Warren dives into the specific evidence from the AI front that changed his bullish conviction.
7 (28:52) **How AI Cures the CapEx "Ill"** - Warren explains how improved AI models have fundamentally changed investor perception of hyperscaler capital spending.

+ Full timestamped outline available in the app

Guests on this episode

Jack Farley

Show Notes

Request Access to Free Trial to Caliban, Warren’s new AI-powered research tool that automates complex data sourcing & institutional-grade charting for investors:

https://www.3fourteenresearch.com/monetary-matters

In this episode, Warren Pies, founder of 314 Research and Caliban, joins the show to analyze the "two wolves" currently battling for control of the market: the transformative power of AI and the historic oil crisis in the Strait of Hormuz. Pies details how an "agentic explosion" in AI and a massive scramble for compute are fueling an unprecedented earnings boom, with proprietary data showing that frontier models like Mythos are driving a legitimate, if lopsided, market advance. On the flip side, we explore the terrifying 10-million-barrel-per-day oil deficit caused by geopolitical blockades and why "managed demand destruction" has been the only force keeping prices from skyrocketing past $200. Despite these risks, Warren remains fundamentally bullish on equities, arguing that the AI-driven CapEx cycle and resilient fiscal stimulus are powerful enough to help the S&P 500 look through the energy nightmare. We also get an exclusive look at Caliban. Finally, Warren shares his tactical portfolio positioning, explaining his strategy for staying overweight in both stocks and oil commodities while remaining underweight in fixed income. Tune in to see how the S&P 500 reached the 7,000 target predicted in 2024 and why Warren believes the path to 8,000 remains intact. Recorded May 1st, 2026.