Monetary Matters with Jack Farley
Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

Top Performing Value Investor Explains Why the Market Isn’t Overvalued and Hasn’t Hit the Blowoff Top Phase | Charles Lemonides | ValueWorks LLC

October 12, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

The Bull Market Isn't Over Yet—And the Best Returns May Still Be Ahead

Charles Lemonides, CIO of ValueWorks LLC, has been managing money through multiple market cycles. When Jack Farley asks him whether the S&P 500's forward P/E of 18 signals a tech bubble, Lemonides pushes back on the premise. The market is "more fully valued than it once was," he says, but the bigger story is structural: we are 18 years into a bull market that has never suffered a 25% correction. And the common instinct to call the top is, in his view, premature.

"It's sort of silly to think it's gonna be 18 years and two weeks instead of 18 years and six months or 19 years and two months or 22 years and seven months," Lemonides says. "The important thing to consider there is that the best returns are earned in the final years of a bull market. Bull markets have massive blow-ups to the upside before the downside happens. And I don't think we've seen that lift-off quite yet."

Why This Cycle Still Has Room to Run

Lemonides sees multiple reasons to believe the cycle can continue. One is that multiples have actually been contracting over the past year—earnings growth has been so strong that prices have risen even as valuations compressed. That is not what a blow-off top typically looks like.

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What you'll learn

  • 1 Timestamped Navigation Outline
  • 2 (00:00) **18-Year Bull Market Thesis** - Charles Lemonides argues the market hasn't reached its final blowoff top phase
  • 3 (03:02) **Why Multiples Are Contracting Despite Rising Prices** - Earnings growth explains the apparent valuation paradox
  • 4 (04:56) **Rate Debate: Growth vs. Debasement** - Lemonides argues rising yields reflect economic strength, not fiscal fears
  • 5 (06:51) **Value Investing in the Late-Cycle Boom** - How to find growth stocks disguised as value stocks
  • 6 (08:19) **Micron as a Case Study** - A value-turned-growth stock that delivered 14x returns
  • 7 (11:14) **Intel as the Next Micron-Style Opportunity** - Why Intel's foundry business creates dramatic upside torque

+ Full timestamped outline available in the app

Guests on this episode

Jack Farley

Show Notes

This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here: https://sarmayaetf.com/

Charles Lemonides, CIO and founder of ValueWorks LLC, joins Other People’s Money to discuss why the 18-year bull market still has room to run. Lemonides argues that we have not yet reached the explosive "liftoff" phase typical of late-stage bull markets and explains why the biggest gains often come right before the turn. He shares his strategy for finding "growth in value's clothing," highlighting high-upside opportunities in semiconductors, rideshare, delivery, and offshore energy. Plus, he breaks down where he sees extreme overvaluation in the market and breaks down his most compelling short positions.


Learn more about ValueWorks: https://www.valueworksllc.com/

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