The US Manufacturing and Electrification Megatrends Are Here and They’re Way More Than AI | Chris Semenuk

June 18, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

The US manufacturing sector has been in recession for three straight years—the longest contraction in the history of the ISM Purchasing Managers’ Index—and has only emerged in the last three months. While headlines chase AI, hyperscalers, and space, Chris Semenuk argues that a much larger, quieter investment opportunity is unfolding in plain sight: the reindustrialization and electrification of the United States. Semenuk manages two ETFs at Tema ETFs—RSHO (focused on manufacturing and reshoring) and VOLT (focused on electrification)—and he sees both themes as being in their early innings, supported by order backlogs, policy shifts, and decades of underinvestment.

What Reindustrialization Actually Looks Like

The common image of reindustrialization—factories moving back from Asia to the US, bringing millions of jobs with them—is wrong. Semenuk says that is not happening. Instead, the US has become the first choice for incremental capital investment. When a CEO decides to expand production capacity, the US is now the default location, not because old factories are returning, but because the business case for building new ones here has fundamentally changed.

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What you'll learn

1 (00:00) **Three-Year Manufacturing Recession Just Ended** - The ISM PMI survey was sub-50 for three straight years, the longest contraction in the survey's history, and has only recently recovered above 50.
2 (01:17) **Defining the Reindustrialization Reality** - Semenuk argues the trend is real, not a fantasy, and is visible in unprecedented order backlogs at major industrial companies.
3 (05:05) **What Reindustrialization Is (and Isn't)** - The US is not moving old factories from Asia to Louisiana; it is becoming the first choice for incremental global capital investment.
4 (07:49) **The Multiple Drivers Behind the Shift** - Policy, cost dynamics, and supply chain shocks are all pushing production back to the US.
5 (12:46) **The Changing Mix of Goods** - The US is not bringing back textile or commodity manufacturing; it is focusing on advanced, high-value production.
6 (15:53) **AI vs. Manufacturing: The Real Power Driver** - AI is a small part of the story; manufacturing is the dominant force behind power consumption and the electrification theme.
7 (17:27) **Where to Find the Winners: Inside the Factory Walls** - The investment opportunity has shifted from infrastructure to the equipment that goes inside factories.

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Show Notes

In this episode of Other People’s Money, host Max Wiethe sits down with Chris Semenuk, an investment partner at Tema ETFs, to discuss the massive secular tailwinds driving the US manufacturing and electrification renaissance. Semenuk argues that after a three-year recession and decades of underinvestment, US industrial capacity and manufacturing are finally entering a powerful recovery cycle. Moving beyond the hype of AI and hyperscalers, they explore how "boring" short-cycle industrial companies like those producing essential components like ball bearings, pneumatics, and filters are primed for extraordinary earnings growth. They also discuss how America’s electrification mega trend goes beyond the AI data center buildout.

Follow Chris on X: https://x.com/ChrisSemenuk

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Timestamps:

00:00 Manufacturing Recession Ends

00:46 Meet the Industrial Bull

02:00 Proof Reindustrialization Is Real

05:28 What Reindustrialization Really Means

07:49 Why Companies Build Here

12:45 Advanced Goods Not Old Jobs

15:52 AI Hype Versus Reality

17:27 Picking the Equipment Winners

21:46 Inside Factory Wall Plays

23:26 Short Cycle Sequencing

27:53 Destocking Rates Tariffs Fog

32:28 Why Stocks Held Up

37:03 Valuing Cyclical Industrials

45:05 Tariffs Drive Onshoring

50:31 Humanoids And Automation

54:31 Grid Demand Inflection

57:05 Behind the Meter Reality

01:01:10 Rural Utilities Winners

01:08:22 High Voltage Bottleneck

01:14:40 Service Backlogs and Duration

01:18:28 Secular Tailwinds Wrap Up