The Most Extreme Shipping Market in History, Explained | J Mintzmyer on Why Oil Tanker Rates Are Up 25x and Why It Can’t Last (and Why Dry Bulk, not Tankers, is the Next Shipping Boom)

October 6, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

Jay Mintzmyer, founder of Value Investors Edge, joined Monetary Matters to break down the most extreme tanker market in history. The numbers are staggering: spot rates for Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) have hit $1 million to $1.2 million per day, compared to a normal range of $20,000 to $40,000 — a 25x increase, not 25%. One-year charter rates, which provide more certainty, have reached $150,000 to $170,000 per day versus a typical $25,000 to $30,000. Asset values for the ships themselves are at all-time highs, surpassing even the 2007-2008 peak. But Mintzmyer is clear: these rates are unsustainable, measured in days or weeks, not months.

How the Strait of Hormuz Created the Boom

The crisis stems from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz following the Iran conflict that began in February 2026. However, the story is more nuanced than a simple blockade. The strait was never fully closed by Iranian military force — Iran has been "very ineffective" at actually sinking ships, as Mintzmyer puts it. Instead, the closure was driven by fear and caution. Shipowners, especially those with publicly traded companies, were unwilling to risk their vessels and seafarers.

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What you'll learn

1 (00:53) **Tanker Rates: Unprecedented Highs** - J Mintzmyer quantifies the historic spike in crude tanker spot rates.
2 (04:33) **Why Rates Are So High: The Perfect Storm** - J explains the confluence of factors driving the market to these extremes.
3 (08:36) **The Core Principles: Inefficiency and Ton-Miles** - J distills the market dynamics into two key concepts that explain why disruptions are bullish for tankers.
4 (12:54) **The Strait of Hormuz: Reality vs. Data** - J clarifies the actual flow through the strait and warns about the reliability of official tracking data.
5 (16:59) **Sustainability of Rates and the "99 Cargoes" Rule** - J assesses whether the current rate levels can last and explains the commodity market dynamics at play.
6 (20:37) **China's Return and the Refined Products Crunch** - J discusses China's renewed role in the market and the specific crisis in diesel and other refined products.
7 (23:07) **Product Tankers: The Catch-Up Trade** - J analyzes the divergence between crude and product tanker rates and identifies an opportunity.

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Show Notes

This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here: https://sarmayaetf.com/

Crude tanker rates have exploded to more than $1 million per day on some Middle East Gulf to China voyages, roughly 25 times normal levels, as the Iran war and disruption in the Strait of Hormuz throw global oil shipping into chaos. J Mintzmyer, founder of Value Investors Edge, joins Jack to explain why disruption and inefficiency are rocket fuel for ship owners, why "ton miles" are the real commodity, and why real-time AIS ship-tracking data in the Strait can't be trusted. J argues today's spot rates are unsustainable on a timescale of days or weeks, warns that the BWET freight ETF (up roughly 4,000% this year) could get smashed when rates turn, and lays out the wave of new tanker supply set to arrive in 2027–2028. He separates rates, ship values, and tanker equities, flagging Nordic American (NAT) as an avoid, naming Okeanis Eco Tankers (ECO) and TORM (TRMD) as the quality names, and explaining why product tankers may finally be catching up. We also cover the aging dark fleet, a potential US diesel export ban, and why J sees dry bulk as the most attractive segment in shipping today, with CMB Tech (CMBT) as his top pick and China's push into Guinean iron ore as a major tailwind. Recorded September 30, 2026.

J Mintzmyer on X https://x.com/mintzmyer

Jack Farley on X https://x.com/JackFarley96

Pieces Discussed:

“CMB.TECH: Updates From Our Top Shipping Pick Of 2026”: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4944783-cmbtech-updates-from-our-top-shipping-pick-of-2026?gt=e5bc41646f6cc54e

“Dry Bulk Shipping Momentum Poised To Continue”: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4946334-dry-bulk-shipping-momentum-poised-to-continue?gt=b81339756f928160

“Here's What Happens To Shipping When The Strait of Hormuz Reopens”: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4949498-heres-what-happens-to-shipping-when-strait-of-hormuz-reopens

Value Investor’s Edge: https://www.vieresearch.com/

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