The Commodity Bull Market Is Broadening | Jim Wiederhold on Copper, Grains, and Bloomberg Commodity Index

When gold made a new all-time high in early 2025, Jim Wiederhold, Commodity Indices Product Manager at Bloomberg, was already watching something else: the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) had historically risen 5% in the quarter after a gold record and 15% over the following year. That pattern was not a coincidence or a financial parlor trick. It reflected a deeper rotation that was already unfolding—a broadening commodity bull market driven by de-globalization, extreme weather, rising input costs, and structural demand shifts from AI and electrification.

The Macro Flip: From Globalization to Fragmentation

The commodity landscape has inverted from the 2010s, when low inflation, low rates, low volatility, and continued globalization kept raw materials in a bear market. Over the last five years, those tailwinds reversed. De-globalization has raised the cost of doing business everywhere. When the Strait of Hormuz conflict escalated, tanker hire costs jumped three to four times in certain areas. Extreme weather has lowered river levels worldwide, making physical transport harder and more expensive. And because energy is required to produce every other commodity, higher energy costs cascade through the entire complex as input costs. The result is a self-reinforcing cycle: higher energy raises production costs for metals and agriculture, which pushes their prices higher, which