Monetary Matters with Jack Farley
Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

Milton Berg: I Have Evidence Market Has Likely Bottomed | Why Milton’s Long Semis, Korea, Nasdaq, and More (With Caveats), and Why He Thinks Gold has made a Multi-year Top

August 12, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

On July 29, 2026, Milton Berg saw something most market participants missed. The Korean KOSPI index had collapsed 43% in 27 days. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index had fallen 28.7% from its June peak. Hedge funds were liquidating public holdings in a panic. Berg, who had been short into that decline, covered his shorts and went 100% long the next day. His reasoning: crash lows are almost always tested but rarely violated, and the panic itself was the signal.

The July 29th Low and Its Ambiguities

The S&P 500 made a positive divergence against the June low—it did not make a new low even as the semiconductors and KOSPI did. That alone is a textbook bullish sign. Berg also uses what he calls "Montgomery cycle dates," which he says often pinpoint turning points. July 29th was one such date, and the market spiked down into it and reversed.

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What you'll learn

  • 1 Milton Berg: I Have Evidence Market Has Likely Bottomed
  • 2 Timestamped Outline
  • 3 (00:00) **Introduction and Current Positioning** - Milton Berg joins Jack Farley to discuss his market outlook after the July 29th panic low
  • 4 (01:17) **The Positive Divergence Signal** - Berg explains why the SP 500 holding above its June low while semiconductors and Korea made new lows is a bullish technical sign
  • 5 (03:56) **Why This Rally May Not Be Straight Up** - Berg warns the sharp rally off the July low could be followed by a retest of the lows
  • 6 (06:50) **Exhaustion Gap Warning** - Berg flags that the gap up in NASDAQ and Cosby after the July low may be exhaustion gaps rather than breakaway gaps
  • 7 (09:25) **Why They Were Short: The VXN Deviation Signal** - Berg traces the origin of his bearish stance back to December 2025

+ Full timestamped outline available in the app

Show Notes


Milton Berg, one of Wall Street's legendary market technicians, returns to Monetary Matters to explain why he believes the recent crash across the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, KOSPI, and semiconductor stocks has already bottomed — and why he's still positioned long despite major caveats.

  1. The positive divergence call: Milton breaks down why the S&P 500's July 29th low held above its June 9th low even as the Nasdaq 100 and Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) made new lows — a classic technical signal he says points to higher prices ahead.

  2. The 1987 crash comparison: Using historical crash-low data, Milton shows how markets rarely V-bottom and go straight up — and lays out why the current setup looks more like 1987 (a retest of the lows) than the COVID V-shaped recovery.

  3. The "exhaustive gap" warning: Despite his bullish lean, Milton flags a specific gap pattern in the Nasdaq 100 and KOSPI that has historically signaled short-term tops — and explains what would need to happen for it to resolve bullishly instead.

  4. Inside his trading model: Milton walks through his systematic buy-signal model, including a real trade history that turned $10,000 into over $1.15 billion, and unpacks how his signals performed (and failed) around 2008 and other historic drawdowns.

  5. His current portfolio positioning: Milton details his exact allocations — long the KOSPI/EWY, Russell 2000, S&P Midcaps, Nasdaq 100, SOXX, and S&P 500 — and explains why he flipped from short to long on July 29th and 30th.

  6. Gold, silver, and bond yields: Beyond equities, Milton shares his latest technical read on precious metals and where he sees long-term bond yields heading.

  7. Why retail investor behavior matters right now: Milton highlights a retail selling data point — the highest since 2022 — and explains why heavy retail capitulation is historically a bullish signal for stocks.

Follow Milton Berg on X https://x.com/BergMilton

Follow Milton Berg Edge on X https://x.com/MiltonBergEdgeMilton Berg Edge website https://miltonbergedge.com/

Milton Berg Advisors website https://miltonberg.com/

Jack Farley on X https://x.com/JackFarley96

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Disclaimers

Milton Berg Edge is a newsletter (“Newsletter”) owned and published by Milton Berg Advisors, LLC (MBA), doing busi

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