Is The AI Trade Over? | Jack & Max on Panic in AI Credit, SpaceX Earnings, and Semis
October 20, 2026
AI Summary
5 min readThe AI Trade Isn't Dead—But the Certainty Is
On a recent episode of Monetary Matters, Jack Farley and Max opened with a blunt question: Is the AI trade over? The sell-off had been brutal—nine consecutive days of declines in the semiconductor index, the longest such streak since 2006. CoreWeave's unsecured bonds were pricing in roughly a 60% cumulative probability of default by 2032. Anthropic's Q3 revenue growth had slowed sharply. Chinese memory producer CXMT announced plans to increase production. The pessimism was thick in both equity and credit markets.
Jack's answer was clear: no, the AI trade is not dead. But the conversation that followed made plain why the market is panicking anyway—and why that panic might itself be a signal worth watching.
The SpaceX Call and the Compute Price Disconnect
SpaceX just reported earnings, and the numbers were striking. AI revenue—or "superintelligence" revenue, as Elon Musk now calls it—tripled in a single quarter, up 195% quarter over quarter and 830% year over year. Musk said he is confident he can bring 10 gigawatts of compute online by the end of 2027, with a stretch target of 20 gigawatts. That is an enormous number. And nearly all of that compute, Musk indicated, would come from NVIDIA chips.
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What you'll learn
- 1 (00:19) **The Big Question: Is the AI Trade Dead?** - Jack and Max set up the episode around panic in AI credit, SpaceX earnings, and the broader AI trade sell-off.
- 2 (03:06) **The Two Bearish Triggers: Anthropic’s Slowdown and Chinese Memory** - Jack identifies the two pieces of news that sparked the October AI sell-off.
- 3 (05:40) **SI vs. AI: The Rebranding and Its Implications** - Jack and Max discuss Trump’s push to rename AI as SI (Superintelligence).
- 4 (07:44) **The Bond Market’s Strange Rally on a Hot Inflation Print** - Max explains the counterintuitive bond market reaction to strong inflation data.
- 5 (09:33) **SpaceX’s Stunning Compute Revenue and the CoreWeave Disconnect** - Jack breaks down the SpaceX earnings call, focusing on its AI compute business.
- 6 (12:03) **The S&P 500’s Fragile Rotation and the “Rigged” Market** - Jack argues that the S&P 500’s resilience masks a dangerous rotation out of AI stocks.
- 7 (16:17) **Certainty on 2027, Uncertainty on 2028** - Max explains why the market is no longer reacting bullishly to near-term AI capex commitments.
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Guests on this episode
Show Notes
This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here: https://sarmayaetf.com/ Is the AI trade finally cracking, or is this just another shakeout before the next leg higher? Jack and Max dig into the growing stress in AI-linked credit, where lenders and bondholders are starting to question how much debt the data center buildout can really support. They break down SpaceX’s earnings and what the numbers reveal about the economics behind one of the most closely watched companies in the world. From there, the conversation turns to semiconductors and whether chip stocks are pricing in a slowdown or still running on hype. Along the way, they look at where the risks are building, who’s most exposed if AI spending cools, and how investors can position for both outcomes. Whether you’re long the AI trade, short it, or somewhere in between, this episode is for you. Important Information The Fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses must be considered carefully before investing. This and other important information are contained in the prospectus, which may be obtained by following the links Prospectus and Summary Prospectus or by calling +1.215.330.4476. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing. There is no assurance that the fund will achieve its investment objective. The Fund may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should continue to review their investment objectives and risk tolerance periodically. An investment in the Fund involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Exchange traded funds (ETFs) trade like stocks, are subject to investment risk, fluctuate in market value and may trade at prices above or below the ETF’s net asset value (NAV), and are not individually redeemable directly with the ETF. Brokerage commissions and ETF expenses will reduce returns. ETFs are subject to specific risks, depending on the nature of the underlying strategy of the Fund, which should be considered carefully when making investment decisions. For a complete description of the Fund’s principal investment risks, please refer to the prospectus at https://sarmayaetf.com Metals and Mining Companies Risk. Metals and mining companies can be significantly affected by events relating to international political and economic developments, ene
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