Monetary Matters with Jack Farley
Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

“I’m Insanely Bullish on Bonds” | Jared Dillian on Copper, Bonds, Semis, and The Awesome Portfolio

September 3, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

Bonds Are a Bargain, and the AI Hype Is Getting Dangerous

Jared Dillian walked into the interview with a simple, unfashionable conviction: long-term government bonds are the best trade in the market right now. "I'm insanely bullish," he said. "I think 5.1 on 52, 53 on 30 years is an incredible deal. I think 47 on 10s is an incredible deal." He has personally moved a huge portion of his money into bonds in the last month and plans to hold for three to five years.

The Bond Bear Market Is a Sentiment Trap

The dominant narrative is that bonds are toxic. The Bloomberg front page screams about global bond sell-offs sending yields to levels not seen since 2008. Ray Dalio wrote a piece in Time warning about bonds. Investors are calling them "certificates of confiscation" again, just like in the late 1970s. Dillian sees this as a massive sentiment indicator pointing the other way.

The core fear is that deficits are out of control. The US is running a $2 trillion deficit. But Dillian points out that this is only 6% of GDP, compared to 12% of GDP in 2010, when bond auctions had bid-to-cover ratios of three or higher. "It's very easy to measure the supply of bonds, but nobody ever talks about the demand for bonds," he said. If a risk-off event hits and stocks drop 20%, people will show up and buy bonds.

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What you'll learn

  • 1 (00:00) **Welcome and the Bond Bear Market** - Jack Farley introduces Jared Dillian, author of *The Awesome Portfolio*, and asks about the ongoing sell-off in long-term government bonds.
  • 2 (04:03) **Supply, Demand, and AI Issuance** - The conversation shifts to the mechanics of bond supply and demand, including the role of corporate debt from AI hyperscalers.
  • 3 (07:58) **Stock Market and Sector Rotation** - Jared shares his top-down technical analysis of the S&P 500, identifying which sectors are topping and which are bottoming.
  • 4 (09:56) **Semiconductor Sentiment and Retail Positioning** - The discussion focuses on the AI trade, NVIDIA, and whether retail or institutions are driving semiconductor positioning.
  • 5 (13:24) **Leverage and Systemic Risk** - Jared explains how hedge fund blow-ups and leverage in the system signal potential future trouble, using historical analogies.
  • 6 (15:29) **Sentiment on AI and Magazine Covers** - The hosts discuss extreme bullish sentiment on AI, as evidenced by multiple magazine covers.
  • 7 (17:29) **Copper, Gold, and Commodities** - Jared gives his outlook on metals, expressing least enthusiasm for copper and more for gold.

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Guests on this episode

Jared Dillian

Show Notes

Jared Dillian, author of The Daily Dirtmap and the new book “The Awesome Portfolio”, returns to argue that the bond bear market is a sentiment story that has gone too far. Jared calls the market's obsession with deficits and inflation a "mind virus," notes that the $2 trillion deficit is only 6% of GDP versus 12% in 2010, and points out that everyone measures bond supply while nobody measures demand. He has moved a large share of his own money into long bonds as a three-to-five-year hold, calling 5.2–5.3% on 30s and 4.7% on 10s an incredible deal, especially with payrolls deteriorating, JOLTS and PMIs rolling over, and the market still pricing meaningful odds of a hike. On equities, Dillian walked the top 50 S&P charts and sees semis, healthcare, and financials topping — the broker-dealers look worst — while Intel and Oracle look like they're bottoming. He and Jack debate whether the semiconductor washout is over, disagree on where the leverage actually sits (Jack cites Vanda data showing retail positioning in semis near two-year lows), and Dillian warns that the Situational Awareness blowup was the Bear Stearns of this cycle, not the Lehman. He explains why he thinks AI is a bubble for a reason specific to this cycle: it's the first time in his career he's seen tech financed with debt rather than equity, at 6% coupons, for assets that go obsolete in three years. He also lays out his cautiously bullish gold view, why copper is his least favorite metal, why private credit still hasn't found a bottom, and the case for The Awesome Portfolio — equal weights in stocks, bonds, gold, cash, and real estate, which gives up one to two points of annual return but halves volatility and has never drawn down more than 12%. Recorded September 1, 2026.


Jared’s new book, “The Awesome Portfolio”: https://lnk.to/theawesomeportfolio

Jared Dillian on X https://x.com/dailydirtnap

Jack Farley on X https://x.com/JackFarley96

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