Finding the Market’s Most Overlooked Macro Themes and Profiting from Global Volatility | Harris Kupperman

May 6, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

In the fall of 2025, Harris Kupperman noticed something subtle but important: the December 2026 and December 2027 crack spreads—futures contracts that tell you what refiners will earn years from now—started getting a slight bid. That small signal, not any geopolitical forecast, was the real entry point. “You can look at commodities and have all the opinions of the world,” he says. “Nothing matters until the commodity tells you it's ready.”

Kupperman and Roderick van Zuylen, CIOs of Praetorian Capital and Nightwatch Capital respectively and contributors to the research platform Ketum, sat down with Jack Farley to walk through the macro themes and event-driven catalysts they are tracking. The conversation covers refiners, Latin America, volatility plays, senior living, and the US consumer—each treated as a supply-demand setup where something structural is changing, not just a narrative.

The Refinery Trade: Structural Tightness Behind the Headlines

The most prominent theme is refiners. Crack spreads—the difference between what a refiner pays for crude oil and what it gets for selling gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel—have roughly doubled since Kupperman flagged the sector. But the war in Iran is not the thesis. It is a lucky tailwind.

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What you'll learn

1 (00:00) **Opening: The Commodity Tells You When It’s Ready** - Harris Kupperman explains that opinions on commodities are irrelevant until the commodity itself signals readiness through price action.
2 (01:10) **Refiners Thesis: Crack Spreads Doubled, But It’s Not About the War** - The hosts discuss how refiners were flagged as a theme in fall 2025 before the Iran war, driven by supply-demand imbalance.
3 (05:17) **Crack Spreads Defined and Operating Leverage Explained** - Jack Farley defines crack spreads, and the guests quantify the massive operating leverage for major refiners.
4 (09:55) **How Long Will the Over-Earning Last?** - The guests discuss the difficulty of predicting duration, but identify key signals to watch.
5 (11:56) **Comparing to the Russia-Ukraine Cycle** - The 2022-2024 cycle is used as a template for how refiners can over-earn and then rally on buybacks.
6 (13:58) **Wall Street’s Dispersion and Neglect of Refiners** - Analyst estimates for Marathon range from $14 to $35 EPS, creating opportunity for those who do the math.
7 (17:54) **Latin America: The Macro Turn and Political Shift** - A broad theme of Latin American outperformance driven by political change and a weaker dollar.

+ Full timestamped outline available in the app

Guests on this episode

Jack Farley

Show Notes

Monetary Matters listeners can save $1000 on their first-year subscription to KEDM Research with coupon code mm2026: https://kedm.com/?add-to-cart=4175&apply_coupon=mm2026

Harris Kupperman and Roderick van Zuylen join Monetary Matters to discuss the intersection of thematic macro trends and event-driven catalysts. They dives deep into the severe supply-demand imbalances creating massive tailwinds for the refining industry, alongside the political shifts making Latin American equities a highly lucrative trade. They also discuss the rising volatility driving commodity brokers like Marex, and why the eldercare sector is primed for a breakout due to a halt in new facility construction.

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Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

01:10 Refiners Theme Setup

02:06 Why Cracks Tightened

05:18 Picking Refiner Winners

08:26 Earnings Path Dependence

14:22 Analyst Estimates Mispriced

17:54 Latin America Tailwinds

20:57 Brazil Financials Bet

24:01 Finding Mispriced Setups

30:28 KEDM Offer

31:15 Long Vol Through Brokers

34:03 Marex and Stonex Tailwinds

34:33 Macro Drivers of Volumes

36:11 CFO Hedging Incentives

37:57 Prediction Markets Opportunity

39:32 Eldercare Theme Setup

44:53 When Themes Meet Catalysts

46:17 Investor Days as Signals

48:45 Fallen Angels Returns

53:15 AI Automation for Monitors

54:23 CEO Pay as a Tell

55:26 US Consumer Weakness

This podcast is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice. Any views expressed are the personal opinions of the speakers and do not necessarily reflect the views of their employers, affiliates, clients, or any related parties. Listeners should conduct their own research and consult their own advisers before making any investment or financial decision. The appearance of any speaker, guest, company, product, or service on this podcast does not constitute an endorsement, recommendation, or approval by any participant or third party. Any investments discussed are illustrative only and are not intended to reflect any actual portfolio. Examples are meant to show aspects of an investment approach, and while some may highlight successful trades, not all trades are successful or profitable.