AI Summary
5 min readInflation data, tariff turmoil, and a pipeline gambit
The inflation numbers came in softer than expected this week, but nobody on the Marketplace panel was ready to celebrate. "Almost who cares?" was Catherine Rampell's first reaction. The problem isn't the data itself—consumer prices and producer prices both showed cooler inflation than forecast. The problem is that the data is backward-looking by design, and the landscape has shifted since those snapshots were taken. "The war is back on again," Rampell noted, referring to the renewed conflict with Iran that has sent oil prices climbing. Two soft prints do not make a trend, and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack had just gone public saying her district was reporting broad-based inflation pressure. The core inflation number was flat month-on-month, which Anna Swanson called encouraging—"if the war were to go away we would be on a fairly good footing as an economy"—but that "if" is doing a lot of work.
The Fed chairman who gives nothing away
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What you'll learn
- 1 (01:59) **Inflation Data is Already Stale** - Panelists react to CPI and PPI releases, noting the numbers are backward-looking and made irrelevant by the on-again/off-again war with Iran.
- 2 (03:48) **War Returns, Oil Prices Rise, and Future Inflation Fears** - The resumption of conflict with Iran pushes oil prices higher, threatening to reverse any cooling in inflation.
- 3 (04:46) **Fed Chair Warsh Stays Vague on Hill** - New Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh gives his Humphrey Hawkins testimony, sticking to his principle of not telegraphing policy moves.
- 4 (06:10) **New Round of Broad Tariffs Coming as Old Ones Expire** - As the previous 10% tariff expires, the administration plans to replace it with sweeping new tariffs based on forced labor and unfair manufacturing practices.
- 5 (08:44) **Chevron-Iraq Pipeline Deal to Bypass Strait of Hormuz** - Oil benchmarks surge 4-4.5% as Chevron explores building a pipeline through Syria to get Iraqi oil to market without using the vulnerable Strait of Hormuz.
- 6 (11:30) **The Business of Influencer Marketing Goes Mainstream** - A feature on the $37 billion influencer marketing industry, highlighting the professionalization behind the scenes.
- 7 (15:45) **Market Numbers** - The Dow drops 406 points, the Nasdaq falls 361, and the S&P 500 is down 76 points. Weekly losses are 0.9%, 2.9%, and 1.5% respectively.
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Show Notes
The short answer is no, the Chevron-Iraq deal won’t solve the problem. So why did the U.S.-based energy company sign a vague, preliminary deal to negotiate a pipeline that circumvents the Strait of Hormuz? It’s another sign that energy firms expect the war with Iran to drag on. Also in this episode: Talent managers represent more social media influencers as sponsored content spending grows, a food critic delivers the history of iconic Las Vegas buffets, and the U.S. experiences a fun shortage.
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