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What would make Kevin Warsh consider a "Fed put?"

July 1, 2026

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5 min read

What Would Make Kevin Warsh Consider a "Fed Put?"

The relationship between the Federal Reserve and financial markets is delicate. The Fed doesn't want markets to think it's worried about asset prices, but when those prices take a dive, the economy gets nervous. That tension is the backdrop for something called the "Fed put"—an informal understanding that the central bank will step in to support markets when they fall sharply. The concept dates back to Alan Greenspan's early tenure as Fed chair, specifically to October 1987, when the Dow dropped 22.5% in a single day on Black Monday. Two months into his chairmanship, Greenspan responded by helping big banks stay afloat, and the "Greenspan put" was born. The pattern repeated: the dot-com bubble burst in 2001 brought more Fed liquidity injections, the financial crisis under Bernanke produced a "Bernanke put," and the pandemic generated a "Powell put." As J. Cadia at the Cato Institute explained, the Fed's logic has been that if markets signal something that could amplify what's happening in the economy, the central bank should take it seriously. But that doesn't mean the Fed intervenes every time markets wobble. When President Trump imposed wide-scale tariffs last year, the Fed did not immediately step in to fix things. The question of what would make Kevin Warsh—or any Fed chair—consider a "Fed put" remains open, and the answe

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What you'll learn

  • 1 (01:27) **Introduction: Fed Chair Warsh in Portugal** - Kyle Rizdahl introduces the episode from the first day of July, with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaking in Central Portugal about the biggest time of consequence for economies in our lifetime.
  • 2 (02:34) **The "Fed Put" Explained** - The relationship between the Fed and financial markets is tricky, leading to the concept of a "Fed put."
  • 3 (05:16) **Teen Unemployment Diverges** - The June Unemployment Report is coming, but a specific data point stands out: the unemployment rate for 16-19 year olds has risen sharply from ~10% in May 2023 to nearly 15% in May 2024.
  • 4 (07:00) **Why Teens Aren't Working** - The decline in teen labor is a decision of labor supply and demand.
  • 5 (08:47) **Consequences of the Decline** - The decline in teen work is particularly damaging for lower-income and stigmatized groups.
  • 6 (10:23) **Construction Spending Down** - The Census Bureau reports overall construction spending in May was down year-on-year, with single-family home construction off 4%.
  • 7 (13:02) **Prediction Markets for Wildfires** - A new reporting from High Country News reveals a prediction platform for California wildfires, with the tagline "you can't predict fire, but you can trade on it."

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Guests on this episode

Show Notes

It’s unclear what Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will do regarding interest rates, but would a “Fed put” actually help promote stability in financial markets? Also in this episode, we look at why fewer teens are getting paid jobs, a decline in single-family homebuilding, prediction markets for natural disasters, traffic expanding way beyond rush hour, and the booming cowboy boot market.


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