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The Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting next week will be Kevin Warsh’s first as chair, and the pressure on him is already acute. President Trump made rate cuts a litmus test for the job, but recent inflation data has made that promise nearly impossible to deliver. The producer price index and consumer price index both came in hot, driven largely by rising energy costs. Markets are now pricing in no rate cuts for the near or medium term, and the first move they expect—likely at the end of the year—is a rate hike.

Warsh’s challenge: managing expectations without forward guidance

Katherine Rampell of MSNBC noted that Warsh has previously argued the Fed should provide less forward guidance to markets. That stance now collides with a White House that expects rate cuts. The tension is the central drama of his first meeting. Courtney Brown of Axios added that she will be watching how Warsh interacts with reporters. He suggested during his confirmation hearing that he is not keen on the press conferences that Jerome Powell made a tradition after every Fed meeting. Beyond the press conference question, Brown is looking for changes in the policy language itself. Currently, the language implies the next move could be a cut, but Fed officials do not necessarily agree. If Warsh alters that language, it would signal a real shift in posture.

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