The loan demand balancing act

October 20, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

The loan demand balancing act

When regional banks reported earnings this morning, the numbers told a story about the economy that runs counter to the anxiety you might expect two years after a mini-banking crisis. KeyCorp, Mercantile Bank, and Western Alliance all showed something notable: loan demand from mid-sized companies has been strong. But the reasons behind that strength are less about optimism and more about a ticking clock.

The refinancing bubble coming due

Nate Tobik, founder of Complete Bank Data, explained the mechanism driving current loan demand. Companies borrowed heavily right after the pandemic when interest rates were near zero. Those commercial loans typically have a five-year reset period. That enormous bubble of cheap pandemic-era financing is now coming up for refinancing—at much higher rates. Borrowers don't necessarily want new loans; they're forced to refinance the ones they already have.

Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, noted that banks have been keeping their rates competitive to win customers, suggesting they see the corporate sector as stable. That stability, he said, traces back to consumer demand: "We have not seen an increase in unemployment, so we really haven't seen pressure on the income side, hence you still see a fairly healthy demand."

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What you'll learn

1 (01:24) **Episode Open & Regional Bank Earnings** - Host Kai Ryssdal introduces the show and sets up the first segment: regional bank earnings reports from KeyCorp, M&T Bank, and Western Alliance.
2 (04:13) **Other Corporate Earnings: SpaceX & Netflix** - Brief roundup of notable earnings reports from outside the banking sector.
3 (05:08) **Walmart & Sam's Club Bundle: The Value Play** - Walmart announced it will bundle subscriptions for Walmart+ and Sam's Club Plus for $120 a year, a move analyzed as a response to inflation and consumer demand for value.
4 (08:16) **The AI State of Play in Publishing** - A deep dive into the confusing and contentious relationship between artificial intelligence and the book publishing industry.
5 (13:19) **The Business of Toys: Magic & Nostalgia** - Hasbro reported a 15% revenue increase, driven primarily by the card game Magic: The Gathering, which is benefiting from fandom and nostalgia.
6 (16:10) **Market Numbers** - A rundown of the day's closing numbers for the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500, along with notable stock moves for Walmart, Amazon, Costco, Netflix, and SpaceX.
7 (19:13) **The Wild Game Processing Business** - A story about the niche but essential business of processing hunted game, highlighting a labor shortage and the entrepreneurial spirit in rural Wyoming.

+ Full timestamped outline available in the app

Guests on this episode

Kristen Schwab

Show Notes

On Tuesday morning, lenders like KeyCorp, Mercantile Bank, and Atlantic Union Bank turned in their earnings reports. Those types of regional banks make plenty of loans, especially to midsize companies. In this episode, we look at how they might start getting pickier if rates increase. Also, we’ll look at retailers fighting to offer value to customers, how AI is being used in publishing, Magic: The Gathering driving growth at Hasbro, a wild game processing company, and the booming horror industry.

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