AI Summary
5 min readInflation, Oil, and the Cost of Everything
The Institute for Supply Management's Purchasing Managers Index for the services sector showed prices paid by businesses shot up 7.7 percentage points in March — the biggest monthly increase since 2012. That number landed on the same day oil prices ticked up again, and it set the tone for a week where inflation data will dominate the economic conversation, with the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index and the Consumer Price Index both due in the coming days.
The Inflation Picture Sharpens
The ISM services report follows a similar one for manufacturing last week, and together they give a near-real-time read on where prices are heading. Dan North at Credit Insurer Alliance Trade called the ISM data "the most up-to-date data," noting that government measures like CPI are at least a month behind. What the ISM data shows is that prices have risen sharply, especially in manufacturing.
Jay Hatfield at Infrastructure Capital Advisors explained the mechanism: increases in oil prices translate into higher gasoline costs, but more importantly into diesel, because "diesel prices really filter into everything." He called it the "bleed through effect" — the cost of producing goods and moving goods and people goes up across the board. Food is about 40 percent energy, he noted, and the effect also shows up in airline prices.
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What you'll learn
- 1 (01:12) **Episode Introduction & Inflation Preview** - Kai Rizdal sets up the week's focus on inflation amid war-related economic ripples, previewing key data releases (PCE, CPI) and the ISM Purchasing Managers Index.
- 2 (02:13) **ISM Data Shows Sharp Price Increases** - Mitchell Hartman reports on the ISM services and manufacturing reports, showing sharp price increases driven by oil and tariffs.
- 3 (05:02) **Global Oil Supply Squeeze & Price Controls** - The war in the Middle East has tightened global oil supply, prompting governments like South Korea and France to impose temporary price caps on gasoline.
- 4 (08:12) **Health Savings Accounts as Investment Vehicles** - A provision in the GOP tax cut law allows more Americans to open HSAs, which are being promoted as tax-advantaged investment accounts.
- 5 (12:15) **AI Anxiety & Career Adaptation for Mid-Career Workers** - Samantha Fields explores how mid-career professionals are grappling with AI's impact on their jobs and employability.
- 6 (17:22) **Market Numbers & Segment Break** - Kai Rizdal recaps the day's market performance: Dow +165, Nasdaq +117, S&P 500 +29; bond yields rose to 4.34%.
- 7 (19:30) **Thrifting & Resale Market Growth** - Data from ThreadUp shows nearly 60% of consumers bought secondhand clothes last year, with the resale market outpacing broader retail.
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Guests on this episode
Show Notes
We've got the first whiff of price growth as a result of President Donald Trump's war in the Middle East: A services sector purchasing index registered its highest reading since October 2022. Experts expect federal data out later this week to show a similar uptick in prices from February to March. And even if the war ends soon, that inflation could stick around. Also in this episode: The U.S. isn’t likely to institute an oil price cap, HSAs remain an imperfect savings tool, and more shoppers opt for secondhand clothing.
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