The hourly vs. salary wage gap

May 29, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

The latest economic data has revived a word economists don't use lightly: stagflation. First-quarter GDP was revised down to an annualized 1.6%, while the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, came in at 3.8%. That combination of a slowing economy and stubbornly high prices has analysts and Fed officials wrestling with whether the post-pandemic resilience of the American consumer is finally cracking.

The Stagflation Debate and the Consumer

The data points are worrying, but the picture is not uniform. Inflation-adjusted consumer spending was still up in the first quarter, though the personal savings rate fell to its lowest level since mid-2022. As one analyst put it, there are "tiny cracks in the corners" of the economic picture. Credit card and auto loan delinquencies are rising, with lower-income consumers hit hardest by high gas prices. The key question is whether these price shocks are temporary or durable. If high gas prices persist, the cracks could widen. However, the labor market remains a pillar of strength: unemployment is low, jobless claims are very low, and the economy is in a "low firing" environment. This creates a core uncertainty for the Fed and businesses alike—things could get much worse, or they could be fine in a few months, making a rash policy move risky.

The Fed's Dilemma and the Oil Futures Curve

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What you'll learn

1 (01:43) **Episode Introduction & Stagflation Debate** - Kai Ryssdal opens with a discussion of stagflation as a description for the current economy, where growth is slowing but prices remain high.
2 (03:41) **Consumer Cracks & Economic Risks** - The panel examines early signs of consumer strain, including rising delinquencies in credit cards and auto loans, especially among lower-income households.
3 (05:16) **Fed's Dilemma: Looking Through vs. Acting** - Discussion of how the Federal Reserve is responding to persistent inflation, with some officials signaling a potential rate hike.
4 (08:16) **Market Wrap: Stocks Up, Oil Down** - A brief market snapshot: stocks hit record highs, oil prices fall despite the Strait of Hormuz closure, and bonds are steady.
5 (08:55) **The Hourly vs. Salaried Wage Gap** - Fresh data from Indeed's Hiring Lab shows hourly wages grew 1.7% in the past year, while salaried wages grew 2.9%, a reversal from the post-pandemic boom.
6 (11:41) **Convenience Stores: More Than Just Gas** - A segment on how convenience stores are evolving into destination retail hubs, with a focus on food and community.
7 (16:23) **The Numbers: Market Close & Oil Futures** - Detailed market recap: Dow up 363 points, Nasdaq and S&P 500 also up. Dell Technologies surged 32% on strong AI-driven revenue.

+ Full timestamped outline available in the app

Show Notes

Hourly wages went up 1.7% over the past year, according to Indeed Hiring Lab. Salaried wages went up 2.9%, reversing a 2022 trend in which hourly raises outpaced salary raises. Still, there’s one thing all workers have in common: Neither group kept pace with inflation. Also in this episode: Oil futures tell us where fuel prices are headed, convenience stores transcend utility, and a travel nurse tells us about life on the road.

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