The Francis Scott Key Bridge, two years later

The Marketplace episode covers economic ripples from an escalating Middle East war—centered on Iran's conflict and the Strait of Hormuz closure—alongside a two-year update on Baltimore's Francis Scott Key Bridge collapse, a steady labor market snapshot, and supply chain strains hitting humanitarian aid. These developments highlight risks to inflation and growth amid broader resilience.

War's Toll on Global Inflation and Growth

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) projects short-term global inflation 1.2% higher than pre-war forecasts due to the conflict, without altering its 2.9% global growth outlook. Economists like Ishwar Prasad of Cornell note the world economy entered the shock on solid footing, buoyed by AI infrastructure spending and lower U.S. tariffs after Supreme Court rulings. Joseph Gagnon of the Peterson Institute sees low recession odds unless oil production faces major damage, while Ben May of Oxford Economics warns of spillovers to food and energy-intensive goods via fertilizer shortages. Central banks, per Neil Shearing of Capital Economics, prioritize preventing "de-anchored" inflation expectations from another energy surge. The key variable is duration: a quick end limits damage.