High oil prices, big oil profits

August 3, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

A Treasury Secretary’s to-do list, spotted by a Reuters photographer at a cabinet meeting, read: “Buy Japanese yen 5 to 10 billion dollars.” That single note captures the week’s dominant story: the United States and Japan jointly intervened over the weekend to prop up the yen, which had been sliding since early May. The move is a reminder that currency markets do not stay in one country, and that the Trump administration’s tariff goals are in direct tension with a strong dollar.

The Yen intervention and what it means for U.S. interest rates

Japan is the largest foreign holder of U.S. government bonds, with more than a trillion dollars’ worth. To stabilize its own currency, Japan has been selling those Treasuries and buying yen—spending tens of billions of dollars in the process. That selling pushes U.S. bond prices down and yields up, which translates into higher interest rates for American borrowers. The U.S. buying yen alongside Japan sends a signal to markets, and the administration is also considering expanding a lending tool so Japan can borrow against its bond holdings rather than sell them.

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What you'll learn

1 (00:52) **Treasury Secretary's To-Do List & Yen Intervention** - The Treasury Secretary was photographed with a to-do list that included buying Japanese yen, revealing a coordinated US-Japan effort to stabilize the yen.
2 (04:10) **Market Check: Peace in the Middle East & Wall Street** - The host notes that markets are reacting to a perceived de-escalation in the Middle East conflict.
3 (04:47) **Economist Check-In: A "Bumpy" Fed Regime Change** - Nicole Servey of Wells Fargo discusses the economy's broad health and the market's struggle with Chairman Warsh's new, less communicative approach.
4 (09:31) **Labor Market Focus: Low Hire, Low Fire** - The labor market has fallen out of the Fed's discussion, as Warsh leans on a "divine coincidence" theory that controlling inflation will stabilize everything else.
5 (10:35) **This Week's Economic Data Calendar** - A rundown of the key labor market reports scheduled for the week.
6 (11:21) **Small Business Sentiment: Cautious Optimism & Tough Choices** - Mitchell Hartman speaks with three business owners who are navigating a mixed economic landscape with careful hiring and adaptation.
7 (13:43) **My Economy: A Court Reporter's Freelance Success** - Catherine Gordon, a former stay-at-home mom, shares how she built a high-paying freelance career as a voice-writing court reporter.

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Guests on this episode

Eswar Prasad Mitchell Hartman

Show Notes

Permian Basin oil companies are reporting strong quarterly earnings, as the Iran war keeps prices up and supply restricted. West Texas, formerly in a slump, has seen an uptick in hiring and new rigs. But oil companies are moving cautiously — they want to avoid a bust after the boom. Also in this episode, more caution: Small businesses carefully weigh workforce expansion, the U.S. invests billions to prop up the Japanese yen, and a Colorado peach farmer preps for a water shortage.

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