AI Summary
5 min readThe ceasefire between Israel and Iran that never really held has collapsed, and oil prices are already climbing. Brent crude hit $79 a barrel on Wednesday, up about 6.5% on the day, and West Texas Intermediate settled at $74. The immediate trigger: rockets and drones launched at oil tankers trying to transit the Strait of Hormuz. Robin Brooks, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, told Marketplace’s Kai Ryssdal that the episode is about hardliners in Iran trying to extract leverage. “I think we are on the verge of going back to a hot war,” Brooks said. “And that obviously will push oil prices up.”
Oil, the consumer, and the Fed
The run-up in oil prices matters for the U.S. consumer directly at the pump. Brooks reminded listeners that the national average for a gallon of gas was around $3 when the conflict began, spiked to $4.50, and had settled back to roughly $3.80. “Obviously, this is gonna push the price at the pump back up,” he said. “So it's not good for the US consumer, and it's going to feed resentment and fears over affordability.”
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What you'll learn
- 1 (01:35) **Oil Prices Spike as Middle East Ceasefire Collapses** - Host Kai Ryssdal and Brookings fellow Robin Brooks discuss the breakdown of the ceasefire and its immediate impact on oil markets.
- 2 (06:13) **Fed Minutes Reveal Internal Debate on Rate Hikes** - Brooks analyzes the June Fed meeting minutes, noting the decision to hold rates was not as hawkish as some believed.
- 3 (07:29) **Small Businesses Stockpile Inventory Amid Tariff Uncertainty** - A segment on how retailers are navigating geopolitical and trade policy risks by ordering ahead.
- 4 (11:36) **Companies Issue New Shares to Raise Capital** - A wave of stock issuance is underway as firms seek funds for M&A and long-term growth.
- 5 (14:11) **Market Numbers** - A brief rundown of the day's market performance.
- 6 (17:25) **U.S. Electricity Use Hits Record High, Driven by Data Centers** - Commercial power demand is set to surpass residential use for the first time.
- 7 (20:35) **Sustainable Aviation Fuel Industry Adapts to a New Political Reality** - A follow-up conversation with World Energy CEO Gene Gabolis on the state of SAF and decarbonization.
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Guests on this episode
Show Notes
President Trump called off the a ceasefire with Iran Wednesday morning, sending the U.S. back into a military conflict — and sending oil prices back up after weeks of steady cooling. In this episode, Kai calls up economist Robin Brooks at Brookings to explain how a reignited war will affect global oil markets and prices at the pump. Plus: Retailers stock up early for the 2026 holiday season, businesses surpass homes’ energy use for the first time on record, and corporations issue more shares to raise capital.
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