Consumer credit creep

October 19, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

The consumer price index rose 3.7 percent over the past 12 months, the producer price index jumped 6.3 percent, and import prices climbed more than 8 percent. That was the inflation data for September, and it will sit front and center when the Federal Reserve meets next week. But as Marketplace host Kai Ryssdal reminded listeners, stable prices is only half the Fed's mandate — maximum employment is the other half, and whatever the central bank does on interest rates will affect the labor market too.

The labor market and the Fed's balancing act

Preston Mui, senior economist with the advocacy group Employ America, described the current labor market as "frankly quite boring right now." That isn't bad — wage growth and hiring are sluggish, but there is no imminent collapse either. "I think that's why the Fed feels comfortable shifting its focus towards inflation," Mui said.

If the Fed raises rates, some industries are likely to shed jobs. Courtney Shupert, an economist with Macro Policy Perspectives, pointed to housing: higher mortgage rates discourage new buyers, and home builders face higher financing costs, which means less construction and less hiring. Companies that use temp workers are also vulnerable — temp jobs lost 11,000 positions in September alone, and Shupert expects that to slow further in response to higher rates.

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What you'll learn

1 Consumer credit creep — Marketplace
2 (01:11) **Episode Preview** - Host Kai Risdal sets up a two-story program about the cost of money, covering the farm economy and a coffee business profile.
3 (01:47) **September Inflation Data Recap** - The consumer price index rose 3.7% over 12 months, producer price index up 6.3%, and import prices jumped over 8% — all ahead of the Federal Reserve's next meeting.
4 (05:00) **Consumer Debt and Inflation Disparities** - Lower-income households are being hit hardest by inflation and increasingly turning to expensive borrowing, compounding their financial strain.
5 (07:31) **Farm Economy at High Financial Risk** - The USDA reports most small family farms face single-digit profit margins, vulnerable to bad weather or fuel spikes, while a federal solar grant program faces a contentious rule change.
6 (12:21) **Home Builder Confidence at 11-Year Low** - Builder confidence fell to its lowest since June 2012, with 30-year mortgages averaging 7.4%, high diesel and material costs, and labor shortages worsened by immigration enforcement.
7 (15:07) **Market Numbers** - Dow down 36 points, NASDAQ up 290 points (1.1%), S&P 500 up 31 points (0.4%). AI stocks rebounded. Kroger and Albertsons began court proceedings over their failed merger.

+ Full timestamped outline available in the app

Guests on this episode

Kai Ryssdal

Show Notes

Inflation is affecting all of us. But when costs go up, lower-income households are especially vulnerable to credit creep — that’s when consumers use credit for more and more transactions. One survey found 29% of buy now, pay later users took out the loans to pay for groceries, double the percentage from just a couple of years ago. Also in this episode: What might happen to the labor market if Fed raises interest rates, how immigration crackdowns are tied to a 14-year homebuilder confidence low, and why political candidates are competing for AI attention.

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