THIS WEEK IN AI: Leopold's Fund Collapses, Nvidia Backs Ilya, Slowing Down AI

July 31, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

Leopold Aschenbrenner, the 23-year-old founder of the Situational Awareness fund, may be facing the first real test of his investing career. Unconfirmed reports suggest his fund is down 30 to 50% as semiconductor stocks have drawn down sharply over the last month. Rumors, including from the newsletter Godell News, claim the fund is down more than 50% month-to-date after being up 200% year-to-date, and that Aschenbrenner has been forced to liquidate positions — including half of his stake in Anthropic, which he entered at a $60 billion valuation and which made up roughly 40% of his fund. The hosts note that Aschenbrenner's strategy has been long-only with leverage, designed to maximize upside, and that this is his first major downturn. They compare him to veteran investor Gavin Baker, who has survived multiple cycles, and note that Aschenbrenner's most recent 13F filing showed he was hedged with a large short on Nvidia, which may have limited losses. The next 13F filing will reveal whether he survived the drawdown.

Ilya Sutskever's Safe Superintelligence Partners with Nvidia

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What you'll learn

1 (00:00) **Leopold Aschenbrenner's Fund in Trouble** - Rumors surface that his long-only leveraged fund is down 30-50% amid semiconductor stock drawdowns, forcing liquidation of key positions.
2 (03:27) **Nvidia Backs Ilya Sutskever's Safe Superintelligence** - The ex-OpenAI co-founder's secretive startup announces a strategic partnership with Nvidia, signaling a major breakthrough.
3 (06:30) **1,300+ AI Researchers Sign Petition to Slow AI Development** - Researchers from OpenAI, Anthropic, and other labs call on the US government to pace AI progress to prevent recursive self-improvement from spiraling out of control.
4 (08:57) **Anthropic's Dario Amodei Weighs In on Open vs. Closed Source** - Anthropic clarifies it doesn't want to ban open models, but proposes three reasonable guardrails to prevent AGI from escaping.
5 (11:23) **Dwarakesh's Contrarian Bullish Take on GPUs** - The analyst argues GPU prices will only go up because high-value intelligence on scarce compute will command a premium.
6 (14:14) **Ledger's Agent Stack for Secure AI Agents** - A three-step process lets agents propose actions, humans approve, and ledger signers enforce, keeping users in full control.
7 (15:00) **Earnings Season: Microsoft Leads, Others Volatile** - Microsoft's Azure cloud revenue up 43% year-over-year drove a 15% stock pop, despite having "never released a single AI product."

+ Full timestamped outline available in the app

Show Notes

Leopold Aschenbrenner’s AI-focused fund may be facing major losses, along with rumors of position changes tied to its AI exposure.

We also discuss Safe Superintelligence’s partnership with NVIDIA, and an open letter from AI researchers urging the U.S. government to slow AI development.

We explore Anthropic’s views on open source AI and chip export restrictions, plus market updates from Microsoft, Samsung, Intel, and Apple.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Leopold Fund Trouble
3:15 Ilya’s Quiet Breakthrough
6:30 AI Slowdown Petition
8:56 Open vs Closed Debate
11:08 GPUs Only Go Up
14:14 Ledger Agent Security
14:59 Earnings Season Surprises
17:30 Kimi’s Costly Open Source

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RESOURCES

Josh: https://x.com/JoshKale

Ejaaz: https://x.com/cryptopunk7213

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Not financial or tax advice. See our investment disclosures here:
https://www.bankless.com/disclosures⁠

Josh works with Anthropic as a contractor. All views expressed are his own and do not represent Anthropic, its leadership, or its affiliates. Nothing in this episode is investment advice.