The SpaceX Investment Thesis: Where We Are Now

SpaceX went public four days ago. In that short window, the stock has climbed roughly 50% above its $135 IPO price, the company has reached a $3 trillion market cap—making it the fourth most valuable company in the world, ahead of Microsoft—and Elon Musk has become the world's first trillionaire. The hosts of the Limitless Podcast walk through the mechanics, the risks, and the longer-term investment thesis for a company that is simultaneously a rocket maker, a satellite internet provider, and now, following a $60 billion all-stock acquisition of the AI coding company Cursor, a frontier AI lab.

The IPO mechanics and the float problem

Only about 4.2% of SpaceX's total shares are currently available for public trading. That tiny float is the main reason the stock has shot up so quickly: when demand is high but supply is minuscule, the price moves violently upward. On a single recent trading day, half of all available shares changed hands.

The catch is an aggressive unlock schedule. Over the next 90 days, roughly 4.4 times the current float—about 2.4 billion shares—will be released in staggered tranches. By the end of this year, around 56% of the total share supply will be tradable. That is far faster and larger than a typical IPO, where 40–50% of shares are released at listing and the rest unlock after a one-year cliff.