AI Summary
5 min readSpaceX's First Earnings Report: A Company That Defied the Bears
SpaceX reported $7.81 billion in revenue for the quarter — a 92% year-over-year increase that Wall Street analysts had dismissed as impossible. The company that everyone said was a "money vacuum" instead delivered a beat on nearly every metric: revenue came in almost a billion dollars above the $6.93 billion estimate, earnings per share landed at $0.09 versus the expected loss of $0.26, and net losses shrank from a projected $2 billion to just $500 million. Starlink subscribers doubled to 12 million. Yet the stock still traded down 9% on the day of the unlock, as $100 billion worth of shares hit the market.
The Three Pillars That Make the Numbers Work
The hosts break SpaceX down into three distinct revenue engines: connectivity (Starlink), AI (compute and data centers), and space (launch services). AI grew 250% year over year, space grew 30%, and the overall 92% growth rate is remarkable for a company at $30 billion in annualized revenue — typical growth for companies that size is 5-10%.
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What you'll learn
- 1 (00:00) **Earnings Report Smashes Expectations** - SpaceX's first earnings report beats Wall Street estimates, with revenue up 92% year-over-year to $7.81 billion and Starlink subscribers doubling to 12 million.
- 2 (01:51) **The Trillion-Dollar Revenue Target** - Elon Musk guided toward $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030, which would surpass the current largest company (Walmart's $600B+ revenue).
- 3 (03:32) **Beating Estimates Across the Board** - SpaceX outperformed on revenue ($6.93B estimated vs. $7.81B actual), earnings per share (-$0.26 estimated vs. +$0.09 actual), and net income (-$2B estimated vs. -$500M actual).
- 4 (04:52) **The $100 Billion Unlock and Short Squeeze Potential** - A massive $100 billion in SpaceX shares floods the market, and SpaceX is among the most shorted companies, creating potential for either a sell-off or a violent repricing.
- 5 (05:23) **CapEx Spending: $18.5 Billion in a Quarter** - SpaceX spent nearly the entirety of NASA's annual budget ($25B) in a single quarter, spending $2.35 for every dollar of revenue.
- 6 (06:47) **Unfair Advantage in Data Centers** - Elon Musk compared SpaceX's terrestrial data center business to "the New York Yankees playing in a little league," highlighting their massive competitive edge.
- 7 (08:26) **The AI Cloud Business is a Goldmine** - Elon saw that hyperscalers (Amazon, Google) are reporting 40-45% quarterly revenue growth with expanding margins, so he decided to build a neocloud service.
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Guests on this episode
Show Notes
Space just dropped it's first earnings report, showing strong Starlink growth and the company’s expanding role in AI compute and infrastructure.
In the context of heavy capital spending, the NVIDIA partnership, and share unlocks, short-term volatility is anything but an absolute guarantee. Our main concern though: what does the real, long-term future look like?
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TIMESTAMPS
0:00 SpaceX Earnings
4:48 Unlocks and Pressure
6:00 Data Center Economics
7:57 GPU Demand Explodes
12:13 Gigawatts
14:42 Training the Next Generation
17:09 Starlink
22:33 We Try to be Bears
23:36 Cautious Bulls
28:44 Repricing Risk
29:56 Closing
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RESOURCES
Josh: https://x.com/JoshKale
Ejaaz: https://x.com/cryptopunk7213
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Not financial or tax advice. See our investment disclosures here:
https://www.bankless.com/disclosures
Josh works with Anthropic as a contractor. All views expressed are his own and do not represent Anthropic, its leadership, or its affiliates. Nothing in this episode is investment advice.
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