A rational conversation on where AI is actually going | Benedict Evans
May 31, 2026
AI Summary
5 min readBenedict Evans, a longtime tech analyst and former partner at A16Z, argues that AI is as big a deal as the internet or mobile—and only as big a deal as those were. That is not a modest claim, but his point is that the internet and mobile were themselves world-altering, and we are now in roughly 1997 relative to AI: most of the transformative applications have not been built yet, the technology still doesn't work reliably for many tasks, and the people who think they already know how it all ends are almost certainly wrong. The conversation is a calm, historically grounded walk through what we actually know, what we don't, and how to think about the next decade without panic or hype.
We are in 1997, not 2007
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What you'll learn
- 1 (00:00) **The Core Thesis: AI Is as Big as the Internet** - Benedict states his most controversial opinion: AI is as big a deal as the internet or mobile, and only as big a deal.
- 2 (05:15) **The "1997" Timeline and the Spreadsheet Analogy** - Comparing the current moment to the introduction of VisiCalc for accountants.
- 3 (09:45) **Why AI Labs Are Buying Consultancies** - Explaining the counterintuitive trend of AI labs investing in professional services.
- 4 (13:50) **The Jevons Paradox and the History of Automation** - Using price elasticity to explain why automation often creates more jobs.
- 5 (17:45) **The Counterargument to "No More Jobs"** - Challenging the doomsday predictions from AI lab CEOs.
- 6 (20:20) **Why Enterprise Adoption Will Be Slow** - Debunking the idea that companies will fire everyone "in two weeks."
- 7 (23:30) **The AGI Question: Redefining Terms** - Navigating the fuzzy definitions of AGI and superintelligence.
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Guests on this episode
Show Notes
Benedict Evans is an independent analyst and former partner at Andreessen Horowitz, where he spent years as their in-house “thinker” tracking the most important technology trends. For the past six years, he’s been publishing deeply researched presentations on where tech is heading, most recently focused on AI’s transformation of the economy. His work is read by founders, investors, and operators trying to make sense of a noisy field. His most controversial opinion: AI is as big a deal as the internet or mobile—and only as big.
In our in-depth conversation, we discuss:
1. Why we’re in “1997” for AI—early, exciting, and deeply uncertain about what comes next
2. Where value will actually accrue in the AI stack
3. The anti-AI backlash, and where it may lead
4. The surprising boom in consulting and professional services at AI companies
5. Why distribution is becoming the ultimate moat as software gets easier to build
6. Why the right question about your job isn’t “What percent can AI do?” but “Is this a task or a job?”
7. Why things will probably be okay—and what you need to do to prepare
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Episode transcript: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/a-rational-conversation-on-where
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Archive of all Lenny's Podcast transcripts: https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fo/yxi4s2w998p1gvtpu4193/AMdNPR8AOw0lMklwtnC0TrQ?rlkey=j06x0nipoti519e0xgm23zsn9&st=ahz0fj11&dl=0
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Where to find Benedict Evans:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/benedictevans
• Newsletter: https://www.ben-evans.com/newsletter
• Website: https://www.ben-evans.com
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Where to find Lenny:
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