Can the U.S. Rein in Prediction Markets? + Joanna Stern on Her Year of A.I. Experiments + Our Producer Goes to Attention School
May 8, 2026
AI Summary
5 min readThe Hard Fork episode examines prediction markets amid scandals and regulatory pushes, Joanna Stern's year-long experiment handing her life to AI as detailed in her book I Am Not a Robot, and producer Rachel Cohn's month at the Struther School of Radical Attention in Brooklyn.
Prediction Markets' Integrity Issues
Hosts Kevin Roose and Casey Newton highlight prediction markets' rapid cultural rise via platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, now plastered on New York ads. Yet scandals undermine their promise as crowd-wisdom tools for pricing events. Examples include a U.S. Army sergeant allegedly betting $400,000 on Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro's ouster using insider info from a capture operation; French weather sensors at Charles de Gaulle Airport tampered with amid suspicious bets (a viral AI-generated hair dryer photo fueled misinformation); and Super Bowl halftime insiders likely betting on Bad Bunny's songs and guests.
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What you'll learn
- 1 (00:15) **Hosts Intro and Tease** - Banter on listener misconceptions and episode previews on prediction markets, Joanna Stern's AI book, and attention school
- 2 (02:28) **Prediction Markets Rise and Scandals** - Hosts discuss meteoric growth, ads everywhere, and insider trading cases like army sergeant betting on Maduro
- 3 (04:45) **Market Manipulation Impacts** - Examples like Super Bowl halftime show bets reveal how insiders rig outcomes, eroding trust
- 4 (09:14) **Regulatory Efforts and Challenges** - States try bans, CFTC sues them; small CFTC vs. larger SEC; Senate bars senators from betting
- 5 (14:00) **What to Do About Prediction Markets** - Hosts call for gambling safeguards (age verification, self-exclusion, ad limits) and strong anti-insider trading regulator
- 6 (17:50) **Hosts' Predictions on Regulation** - Expect rules on military/Congress abuses by year-end for national security, though Congress passage uncertain
- 7 (19:52) **Joanna Stern Intro and Book Overview** - Stern on "I Am Not a Robot," year-long AI immersion in life tasks (doctor, dentist, parenting, career)
+ Full timestamped outline available in the app
Show Notes
This week we’re taking another look at prediction markets and a new series of scandals. Is Congress finally ready to rein them in? Then, the journalist Joanna Stern returns to the show to discuss her new book “I Am Not A Robot,” all about turning her life over to a chatbot for a year. And finally, Hard Fork’s Rachel Cohn reports back on her month attending classes at the Strother School of Radical Attention, the center of a movement to resist the commodification of attention by technology companies.
Guests:
- Joanna Stern, chief everything officer at New Things
- Rachel Cohn, producer of “Hard Fork”
Additional Reading:
- Soldier Used Classified Information to Bet on Maduro’s Ouster, U.S. Says
- Soldier Pleads Not Guilty in $400,000 Betting Case Over Maduro’s Ouster
- French weather service alerts police to tampering after suspicious Polymarket bets
- The Multi-Trillion-Dollar Battle for Your Attention Is Built on a Lie
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