Challenges the U.S. military is facing in Iran

In the first months of the war with Iran, President Trump and his team have touted the success of punishing airstrikes, claiming Iran’s missile capability has been functionally destroyed. But five and a half months in, the U.S. military’s ability to dictate terms is increasingly limited by depleted weapons stockpiles, Iran’s continued ability to threaten bases and allies, and its control of the Strait of Hormuz. Stacey Pettyjohn, a senior fellow and director of the Defense Program at the Center for a New American Security, explains the structural problems behind these limits — and why air power alone rarely produces a durable political outcome.

Why Air Power Hasn’t Decided the War

From the start, the U.S. relied on air and missile strikes without committing ground troops, which would be costly and politically risky. Pettyjohn notes that historically, air power alone rarely changes a state’s behavior in a lasting way. The key factor is what she calls the “asymmetry of interest”: the U.S. is fighting a limited war at a distance, while for Iran the conflict is existential. “The country is only willing to use air power is normally an indication that they aren’t willing to go all in and pay the terrible costs that sometimes might be associated with using pure brute force,” she says. This mismatch means Iran can endure punishment and wait for the U.S. to exhaust its most effect