NFL Week 4 Best Prop Bets: Top 10 Picks + Touchdown Scorer Predictions (Ep. 2238)

October 3, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

NFL Week 4 Prop Bets: Inside the Betting Process

The FantasyPros betting crew entered Week 4 with something to prove. Chris Welsh and Andrew Erickson had both gone 3-2 the previous week, keeping their heads above water. Erickson's early-season consistency had him at 10-5 on the year, while Welsh sat at 8-7 after recovering from a rough Week 1. Both had also hit touchdown bets the week prior—a meaningful milestone given how volatile that market can be. The conversation that followed reveals not just picks, but the logic and psychology behind how experienced bettors think about matchups, market inefficiencies, and when to trust—or fade—their own instincts.

The Gibbs Rollover and the Danger of Momentum

One of the episode's most revealing threads was the ongoing "Jameer Gibbs rollover"—a bet placed on Gibbs to score an anytime touchdown that has been carried forward week after week, with winnings reinvested. By Week 4, that original unit had grown to roughly 2.5 units. Erickson described the logic: "You can make money off of big juiced up touchdown calls." The template comes from Christian McCaffrey's legendary stretch where the same approach would have produced enormous returns.

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What you'll learn

1 (00:38) **Week 4 Prop Show Intro & Accountability Check** - Hosts Chris Welsh and Andrew Erickson recap their 3-2 records from Week 3 and the overall yearly standings.
2 (02:40) **Jahmyr Gibbs Touchdown Rollover Update** - Erickson explains his ongoing strategy of rolling over winnings from betting on Jahmyr Gibbs to score an anytime touchdown.
3 (04:12) **The "Welsh Undefeated Unders" Streak Ends** - Welsh declares he is off betting unders after his streak was broken, setting up a thematic contrast for the episode.
4 (05:32) **Prop #1: Josh Downs Over 62.5 Receiving Yards** - Erickson leads with a strong play on the Colts receiver in the London game against the Commanders.
5 (08:08) **Prop #2: Parker Washington Over 5.5 Receptions** - Welsh counters with a bet on the Jaguars receiver, citing his elite target share and a favorable matchup.
6 (11:14) **Prop #3: Chase Brown Under 16.5 Rushing Attempts** - Erickson pivots to an under, betting against the Bengals running back's carry volume.
7 (14:22) **Prop #4: Malik Willis Over 28.5 Rushing Yards** - Welsh bets on the Packers quarterback to exploit the Vikings' defense with his legs.

+ Full timestamped outline available in the app

Guests on this episode

Chris Welsh Andrew Erickson

Show Notes

Which NFL Week 4 player props offer the best betting value? Chris Welsh and Andrew Erickson each bring five picks to the table, with overs, unders and matchup-driven plays across Sunday’s slate.

Josh Downs gets an early spotlight in London, while Jaguars-Bengals supplies several of the show’s favorite angles. Malik Willis, Mack Hollins and Jordan Love also enter the card as the guys work through their best bets.

Stick around for the touchdown board, including the continuing Jahmyr Gibbs rollover, anytime touchdown picks and two huge first-TD long shots at 65/1.

Timestamps: (May be off due to ads)

Intro - 0:00:00

Week 3 Review - 0:00:29

BettingPros App - 0:04:05

Josh Downs - 0:04:50

Parker Washington - 0:07:35

NFL Prop Bet Cheat - 0:10:07

Chase Brown - 0:10:40

Malik Willis - 0:13:47

Brenton Strange - 0:16:00

Mack Hollins - 0:18:11

Polymarket - 0:20:48

Jaylen Wright - 0:21:31

Colston Loveland - 0:24:44

Jared Goff - 0:27:02

Jordan Love - 0:28:37

Touchdown Scorer Report - 0:29:58

Touchdown Calls - 0:30:25

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