NFL Week 1 Player Props: 10 Best Bets + Anytime & First TD Picks (Ep. 2184)

September 11, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

Week 1 Player Props: Ten Best Bets and Touchdown Picks

The Betting Pros crew is back for a third straight year of prop betting, and they're not easing into the season. After a perfect Thursday night card—five-for-five on picks including the under, Kyren Williams under carries, Deebo Samuel over catches, and a Mike Evans touchdown—Chris Welsh and Andrew Erickson are riding that momentum into the Sunday slate. But they're not pretending to be infallible: both admit their sleeper picks (Rashid Shaheed and John Stribling) bombed in the early games. The lesson is baked into the episode: week one is a proving ground where you're working from last year's data until the new season shows you what's real.

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What you'll learn

1 (00:56) **Show Intro & Thursday Night Recap** - Welsh and Erickson kick off the Week 1 prop show, express nervousness after two early-week picks busted, and Erickson reveals he swept his Thursday night card.
2 (05:25) **Prop #1 (Erickson): Jonathan Taylor Over 76.5 Rushing Yards** - Erickson picks a marquee RB, citing home/road splits and a beatable Ravens defensive front.
3 (08:19) **Prop #2 (Welsh): Quentin Johnston Over 42.5 Receiving Yards** - Welsh takes a strong stance on the second-year Charger, calling him a "new toy" for Justin Herbert.
4 (11:05) **Prop #3 (Erickson): Juwan Johnson Over 42.5 Receiving Yards** - Erickson targets the Saints' TE2, who becomes the clear #2 target without Rashid Shaheed.
5 (13:38) **Prop #4 (Welsh): Parker Washington Over 4.5 Receptions (+118)** - Welsh bets on the Jaguars slot receiver, getting plus money on a player he and Erickson are both high on.
6 (18:15) **Prop #5 (Erickson): Greg Dulcich Over 24.5 Receiving Yards** - Erickson picks the Dolphins tight end as the "last man standing" in a depleted receiving corps.
7 (21:02) **Prop #6 (Welsh): Rico Dowdle Over 42.5 Rushing Yards** - Welsh bets on the Steelers' lead back, citing a strong projection vs. line mismatch.

+ Full timestamped outline available in the app

Guests on this episode

Chris Welsh Andrew Erickson

Show Notes

The NFL Week 1 slate is here, and Chris Welsh and Andrew Erickson break down their 10 favorite player prop bets, including Jonathan Taylor rushing yards, Juwan Johnson receiving yards, Parker Washington receptions, Rico Dowdle rushing yards, Jalen Hurts passing attempts, Michael Mayer receiving yards, and Xavier Worthy receiving yards.

Then it's time to attack the touchdown market. The guys give their favorite anytime TD bets, including Juwan Johnson, Rico Dowdle, Jameson Williams and Tre Tucker, before taking some big swings on first-touchdown scorers Matthew Golden and Charlie Kolar.

Plus, Erickson introduces the Jahmyr Gibbs touchdown rollover challenge for the season. Get the Week 1 NFL prop bets, touchdown picks, long shots and betting analysis you need before locking in your Sunday and Monday cards.

Timestamps: (May be off due to ads)

Intro - 0:00:00

Jonathan Taylor - 0:04:31

Quentin Johnston - 0:07:24

BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet - 0:09:20

Juwan Johnson - 0:10:10

Parker Washington - 0:11:58

Polymarket - 0:13:54

Greg Dulcich - 0:15:44

Rico Dowdle - 0:18:36

Jalen Hurts - 0:20:26

Michael Mayer - 0:22:41

Jake Ferguson - 0:24:40

Xaxier Worthy - 0:25:27

Betting Pros TD Scorer Report - 0:28:41

Anytime TD Picks - 0:29:38

First TD Picks - 0:34:33

Bonus Bet - 0:38:40

Outro - 0:40:09

Helpful Links:

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