2026 NFL Week 1 Betting Predictions | Sharp Picks Before the Market Adjusts (Ep. 2074)

July 2, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

"14-3 straight up against the Giants." That is the stat Seth Woolcock and Andrew Erickson keep coming back to as they build their Week 1 betting card for the 2026 NFL season. The Betting Pros podcast is out with its early lines, and the hosts are hunting for value before training camp hype distorts the market. The conversation is built around a clear thesis: Week 1 is a time to fade offenses, trust established defensive identities, and be skeptical of new coaching staffs and quarterbacks in unfamiliar situations.

The Case for Fading Offenses in Week 1

The hosts' strongest shared conviction is that Week 1 totals are systematically too high. Erickson points out that since 2005, the under has hit at a 55% rate in Week 1. The reasoning is straightforward: offenses take time to find rhythm, while defenses tend to start faster. New offensive coordinators, quarterbacks returning from injury, and rookies being asked to contribute immediately all create friction that the market often underestimates.

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What you'll learn

1 (01:10) **Show Intro & Week 1 Betting Philosophy** - Hosts Seth Woolcock and Andrew Erickson kick off the regular season preview, explaining why they're betting Week 1 lines now before the market adjusts.
2 (05:09) **Dallas Cowboys -1.5 vs. New York Giants** - Erickson's first spread pick: laying the small number with Dallas on the road.
3 (07:59) **Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 vs. Atlanta Falcons** - Seth's spread pick: fading the Falcons in Week 1 on the road.
4 (11:52) **Tennessee Titans -2.5 vs. New York Jets** - Erickson's spread pick: backing Robert Saleh in his home opener against his former team.
5 (15:51) **Jets vs. Titans Under 39.5** - Seth's total bet: expecting a defensive slugfest in Nashville.
6 (18:24) **Rams vs. 49ers Under 49.5** - Erickson's "lock of the week": fading the high total in the Australia game.
7 (22:02) **Colts vs. Ravens Under 49.5** - Erickson's third under: fading Daniel Jones coming off injury and a new Ravens offense.

+ Full timestamped outline available in the app

Guests on this episode

Andrew Erickson

Show Notes

Seth Woolcock and Andrew Erickson break down their favorite early NFL Week 1 bets, including spreads, totals, moneyline underdogs, and where they believe sportsbooks have already made mistakes.

The duo discusses why the Cowboys could continue their dominance over the Giants, whether the Steelers are being undervalued against Atlanta, why several Week 1 unders stand out, and which underdogs offer intriguing value before kickoff.

If you're betting NFL futures, building your Week 1 card, or simply looking for the sharpest early betting angles, this episode has you covered.

Timestamps: (May be off due to ads)

Intro - 0:00:00

Dallas Cowboys -1.5 vs. New York Giants - 0:04:04

Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 vs. Atlanta Falcons - 0:06:43

Tennessee Titans -2.5 vs. New York Jets - 0:10:43

BettingPros App - 0:12:38

New York Jets vs. Tennessee Titans Under 39.5 - 0:13:12

San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams Under 49.5 -0:15:44

Baltimore Ravens vs. Indianapolis Colts Under 49.5 - 0:18:58

Hard Rock Bet - 0:22:02

Houston Texans (-104) ML vs. Buffalo Bills - 0:24:15

Miami Dolphins ML (+176) vs. Las Vegas Raiders - 0:28:03

Minnesota Vikings ML (+100) vs. Green Bay Packers - 0:30:54

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