2026 NFL Draft Betting Preview | Top 10 Picks & Predictions + Longshots (Ep. 1999)

April 20, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

"Four units down. Jeremiah Love to be a top five pick. Yes, minus 200." That is the heaviest bet Seth Woolcock places on this episode, and it captures the episode's central tension: the hosts are hunting for value in NFL draft betting markets where the line between conviction and overpaying the juice is razor-thin. The episode is a practical walkthrough of how to construct a draft betting card, with each pick explained through a mix of team need, prospect profile, market movement, and the crucial concept of "giving yourself outs" — betting on outcomes that can hit through multiple paths.

The Logic of "Outs" and Market Structure

The core strategic lesson Derrick Brown and Seth Woolcock return to repeatedly is the importance of betting on outcomes with multiple plausible landing spots. When Brown bets on Spencer Fano at plus 200 to be the first offensive lineman selected, he is not simply fading consensus favorite Francis Mauigoa. He is betting on scheme fit (Mauigoa is a gap/power scheme tackle; Fano has more left tackle experience and versatility for outside-zone teams) and the possibility that unpublicized medical information on Mauigoa could shift team boards. "You want to give yourself outs," Brown says. "It's not like you don't want to attach your wagon to one team." This principle applies to nearly every bet on the card: Caleb Downs as first defensive back drafted (p

Continue reading the full summary in the app — free to try.

Read Full Summary →

Free • No credit card required

Listen to Audio Summary Open in App

Never miss an episode of FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast

Get every new episode summarized in your inbox — free, ~5 minutes to read.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.

What you'll learn

1 (00:35) **Show Open & Draft Week Context** - Hosts Seth Woolcock and Derek Brown kick off the Betting Pros podcast, just days before the 2026 NFL Draft in Pittsburgh.
2 (02:51) **Bet #1: Ty Simpson to the New York Jets (+398)** - Seth explains his first bet, a long-shot on Alabama QB Ty Simpson landing with the Jets.
3 (05:14) **Bet #2: QB Selected in Round 1 Under 1.5 (+145)** - Derek fades the idea of a second quarterback going in the first round, offering plus money.
4 (06:48) **Bet #3: Caleb Banks to be a First-Round Pick (+217)** - Seth bets on Florida DT Caleb Banks going in the first round, citing his strong pre-draft process and film.
5 (09:43) **Bet #4: Ruben Bain Jr. to be a Top-10 Pick (-162)** - Seth goes heavy on the Miami edge rusher staying in the top 10 despite short arms.
6 (11:49) **Bet #5: Spencer Fano to be First OL Selected (+200)** - Derek fades the consensus top tackle, Francis Mauigoa, in favor of the Utah lineman.
7 (15:50) **Bet #6: Jeremiah Love to be a Top-5 Pick (-200)** - Seth drinks the juice on the Notre Dame running back, placing 4 units on this bet.

+ Full timestamped outline available in the app

Guests on this episode

Seth Woolcock Derrick Brown

Show Notes

Don't go into Pittsburgh flying blind! Join Seth Woolcock and Derek Brown for their 2026 NFL Draft betting preview!

Why are the New York Jets (+398) live to draft Alabama Crimson Tide QB Ty Simpson? Is Notre Dame Fighting Irish RB Jeremiyah Love (-200) a set-it-and-forget-it top-five pick? Plus, why could the San Francisco 49ers (+425) select a wide receiver with their first pick?

The pros make their top 10 picks and predictions for the NFL Draft futures betting markets!

Timestamps: (May be off due to ads)

Introduction - 00:00:00
Team To Draft Ty Simpson: New York Jets (+398) - 00:02:16
Quarterbacks Drafted In Round 1 Under 1.5 (+145) - 00:04:31
Caleb Banks To Be a First-Round Pick: Yes (+217) - 00:06:05
Seattle: First Position Selected (DL/EDGE +400) - 00:07:11
Rueben Bain Jr. To Be a Top 10 Pick: Yes (-162) - 00:09:05
First Offensive Lineman Selected: Spencer Fano (+200) - 00:11:05
FantasyPros NFL Draft Livestream - 00:13:51
Jeremiyah Love To Be a Top 5 Pick: Yes (-200) - 00:14:40
Kansas City: First Position Selected (CB +300 / WR +320) - 00:16:11
First Defensive Back Drafted: Caleb Downs (+101) - 00:17:27
San Francisco: First Position Selected (WR +425) - 00:19:27
Hard Rock Bet - 00:21:51
Longshots - 00:23:26
Green Bay: First Position Selected (WR +900) - 00:23:40
Team To Draft Jordyn Tyson: Kansas City (+572) - 00:26:02
BettingPros App - 00:27:23
Outro - 00:27:56

Helpful Links:

Hard Rock Bet - Sign up for Hard Rock Bet and make a $5 bet and you'll get $150 in bonus bets if you win. Head over to Hard Rock Bet, sign up and make your first deposit today. Payable in bonus bet(s). Not a cash offer. Offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in FL. Offered by Seminole Hard Rock Digital, LLC, in all other states. Must be 21+ and physically present in AZ, CO, FL, IL, IN, NJ, OH, TN or VA to play. Terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling? In FL, call 1-888-ADMIT-IT. In IN, if you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-9-WITH-IT. GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER (AZ, CO, IL, NJ, OH, TN, VA)