AI Summary
5 min readThe Chiefs have allowed the fourth-fewest rushing touchdowns to running backs this season—just six—and zero in last week’s win over Buffalo. That number lands hard in Evan Silva’s conference championship breakdown, a detailed, prop-by-prop walkthrough of both Sunday games built on specific matchups, injury reports, and defensive tendencies rather than general narratives.
Kansas City at Baltimore: The pressure problem
The Ravens defense allowed the fewest points per game in 2023 (16.5) while leading the league in takeaways and sacks (60). That creates a dire outlook for Patrick Mahomes on the road. Kansas City’s offensive tackles, Donovan Smith and Juwan Taylor, struggle badly in pass protection, and left guard Joe Thuney is unlikely to play. Thuney’s absence is especially dangerous against Ravens defensive tackle Justin Madubuike, who racked up 13 regular-season sacks and was unblockable in Baltimore’s divisional round win over Houston.
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What you'll learn
- 1 (00:06) **Introduction & Game Overview** - Host Evan Silva welcomes listeners to the conference championship edition and sets the stage for the two Sunday games.
- 2 (00:35) **Chiefs Offensive Line Concerns vs. Ravens Defense** - Silva highlights the Chiefs' biggest weakness heading into Baltimore.
- 3 (01:01) **Mahomes Rushing Prop & Pacheco's Role** - Silva shares his betting strategy for Mahomes and assesses the running back situation.
- 4 (02:26) **Chiefs Wide Receiver Outlook** - Silva analyzes the risky Chiefs pass-catchers against a tough Ravens secondary.
- 5 (03:23) **Travis Kelce's Historic Night & Lamar Jackson's Rushing Prop** - Silva discusses Kelce's record and his bet against Lamar's legs.
- 6 (04:17) **Ravens Pass Catchers & Running Backs** - Silva breaks down the Baltimore skill players outside of Jackson.
- 7 (05:10) **Zay Flowers & Ravens WRs vs. Chiefs Secondary** - Silva is cautious on the Ravens' wide receivers.
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Guests on this episode
Show Notes
3:00 PM ET Game
Kansas City @ Baltimore
Team Totals: Ravens 24.5, Chiefs 20.5
Patrick Mahomes’ AFCCG outlook is uninspiring from a matchup standpoint on the road against a Ravens defense that allowed 2023’s fewest points per game (16.5) while leading the league in takeaways (31) and sacks (60). Chiefs OTs Donovan Smith and Jawaan Taylor struggle badly in pass protection, while LG Joe Thuney (pec) is unlikely to play. Thuney’s loss is especially concerning versus white-hot Ravens DT Justin Madubuike, who rung up 13 regular-season sacks and was all but unblockable in Baltimore’s Divisional Round win over Houston. I did bet the over on Mahomes’ rushing prop (26.5 yards) in this one; being hurried could lead to more off-script scrambles, while Mahomes has cleared 27 rushing yards in eight of his last 14 playoff games. … Thuney’s absence plus Isiah Pacheco’s ankle and toe injuries are cause for some Week 21 pause as it pertains to Pacheco’s postseason-DFS playability, although signs point toward Pacheco facing Baltimore. Over his last nine games, Pacheco has turned 134 carries into 702 yards (5.2 YPC) and six touchdowns and caught 25 of 28 targets. In Jerick McKinnon’s (core muscle surgery, I.R.) absence, Pacheco has arguably emerged as Kansas City’s most consistent skill-position player. Pacheco should flirt with 20 touches if the Chiefs keep this game close. … Clyde Edwards-Helaire is worth keeping in mind on the off chance Pacheco sits or pre-game reports suggest he’ll be limited. Playing 28% of Kansas City’s postseason offensive snaps, CEH has parlayed 11 touches into 56 yards.
I took the under on Rashee Rice’s 59.5 receiving-yards prop on the basis that I don’t believe Mahomes will hit his peak passing yardage at Baltimore, and Rice’s primary matchup is daunting versus plus-sized Ravens CB Kyle Hamilton. Arguably the best slot cornerback in the league, Hamilton yielded a minuscule 54% completion rate and 38.4 passer rating when targeted this season. … I did go over on Justin Watson’s 14.5 receiving-yards prop. I think mistake-machine Mecole Hardman could be phased out here, while Skyy Moore (knee) isn’t going to play. Kadarius Toney (hip) is an ongoing enigma. Watson should see a bunch of playing time at Baltimore. … Especially with Ravens top CB Marlon Humphrey (calf) due back, I don’t trust Marquez Valdes-Scantling to repeat his two big Divisional Round catches. … Albeit while often covered by Bills th
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