Establish The Show: Conference Championships

The Lions’ defense gave up 400 yards to Nick Mullens—twice—and got shredded by Baker Mayfield in Week 16. That is the matchup Brock Purdy faces in the NFC Championship Game, even after two straight shaky outings. On the AFC side, Patrick Mahomes draws a Ravens defense that led the league in points allowed, takeaways, and sacks, and the Chiefs will be without their All-Pro left guard Joe Thuney. Those are the central tensions of the two-game Conference Championship slate on DraftKings and FanDuel, and the Establish The Run crew spends the episode working through how to handle them.

The quarterback dilemma: Purdy’s get-right spot versus the field

Brock Purdy will be the most-owned quarterback on the slate, and the reasoning is straightforward: the other three options—Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Jared Goff—all face elite defenses. Detroit’s pass defense is the clear exception. They have been very good against the run and very poor against the pass, which suggests San Francisco should throw the ball all over them. The 49ers also get Deebo Samuel back after a full practice week with no injury designation, a return that Evan Silva argues was crucial last week: “They ran an end around to Jauan Jennings. You know what I mean? Like they were just a mess. They just were not prepared to play without Deebo.”