AI Summary
5 min readThe Race to Stop Le Pen
In a food truck apron, serving fries to passersby in northern France, stood Édouard Philippe—a former prime minister under Emmanuel Macron, now a presidential contender. Another candidate scaled a wind turbine. A third launched a tour of a thousand bistros. All of them are scrambling to do something that, seven months before France’s presidential election, looks increasingly urgent: find a way to beat Marine Le Pen.
For the first time in a decade, Macron cannot run again, constitutionally barred from a third consecutive term. And the polls are stark. Le Pen, of the anti-immigration National Rally, leads the first round with a commanding low-to-mid thirties—at least thirteen points ahead of her closest rival. In each of the three runoff scenarios tested by pollsters, she wins. If pitted against Philippe in the final round, she would take 55% to 45%.
Sophie Pedder, The Economist’s Paris bureau chief, notes how unusual this stability is. Over the past three years, Le Pen has only once dipped below 30% in polling. “When I speak to people in the centre,” Pedder says, “I spoke, for example, to Clément Beaune, who was a former Europe Minister from Emmanuel Macron’s party. He said that the difference between this election and previous elections is that it is possible this time for her to win.”
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What you'll learn
- 1 (01:45) **The Core Question: Who Can Beat Le Pen?** - With Macron barred from a third term, the 2027 French presidential race has become a single question: who can defeat the far-right frontrunner Marine Le Pen.
- 2 (03:30) **Polling Landscape: Le Pen’s Commanding Lead** - Polls show Le Pen with a stable lead in the low-to-mid 30s for the first round, and she wins in every simulated runoff scenario.
- 3 (04:21) **The Unreliability of Early Polls** - Historical precedent shows that early polling favorites often collapse, but the stability of Le Pen’s support is unprecedented.
- 4 (05:09) **The Centre’s Fragmentation Problem** - At least 15 candidates occupy the broad centre-left to centre-right space, making it nearly impossible for any one of them to qualify for the runoff.
- 5 (05:54) **How Centre-Right Candidates Beat Populists Elsewhere** - Successful centrist candidates in other European countries share three key traits: high energy, a rebellious outsider image, and simple, clear messaging.
- 6 (07:07) **Why the French Centre Struggles to Apply These Lessons** - The two candidates best at projecting energy, outsider status, and clear messaging are the extremes: Le Pen and Mélenchon, while the centrists are all former Macron insiders.
- 7 (08:19) **Can Le Pen Be Stopped?** - Pedder refuses to make a prediction but notes that the centre must cling to the hope that polls are often wrong, while acknowledging that a unified candidate is unlikely to emerge until late 2026 or early 2027.
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Show Notes
Marine Le Pen, party leader of France’s populist-right National Rally, starts her fourth presidential bid with a commanding lead. The country’s political centre is broad, fragmented—and flagging. A buffer zone against so-called infiltrators in India’s West Bengal state is making life miserable also for Indian citizens. And how Argentina’s supply of horses and cowboys led to world dominance in polo.
Guests and host:
- Sophie Pedder, Paris bureau chief
- Kira Huju, Asia correspondent
- Hamish Clayton, culture writer
- Rosie Blau, co-host of “The Intelligence”
- Jason Palmer, co-host of “The Intelligence”
Topics covered:
- French politics, Marine Le Pen
- India, West Bengal, Bangladesh, Hindu nationalism
- Argentina, polo
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