Keir hunters: will Britain’s PM go?

Keir Starmer’s speech this week was meant to be a reset. He acknowledged the public’s frustration, promised to prove his doubters wrong, and warned against the “despair” on which populist parties prey. But the words landed against a backdrop that made them hard to believe. In last week’s local elections, Labour suffered a devastating defeat, losing around 1,500 councillors in England and control of the Welsh parliament for the first time since 1922. The party’s first minister in Wales, Eluned Morgan, lost her own seat. The results have triggered open talk of a leadership challenge, and the question now is not whether Starmer will go, but when.

The scale of Labour’s defeat

The elections were for local councils in England and devolved parliaments in Scotland and Wales. For Labour, the pain was concentrated in traditional heartlands — places like Wigan, Salford, and Halton that the party has held for decades or centuries. The party lost virtually all its councillors in those areas. In Wales, Plaid Cymru won for the first time in Welsh history, consolidating the left and defeating Reform UK, which had hoped to do well there. In Scotland, the SNP cruised to victory despite a reduced vote share, because the unionist parties remain fragmented.