AI Summary
5 min readHome disadvantage: risks in housing markets
When central banks jacked up interest rates in 2021 and 2022 to tame post-pandemic inflation, forecasters predicted a global housing crash. It never came. House prices across the rich world barely budged from their all-time peaks, and in many countries they actually rose in real terms. The housing market seemed to have escaped the worst of the rate rises entirely. But according to The Economist's senior economic writer Callum Williams, that resilience may be running out. The situation has "quite meaningfully changed," and if bond yields keep climbing, the housing market today is far more vulnerable than it was three years ago.
Why the housing market shrugged off the last rate shock
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What you'll learn
- 1 (01:43) **Bond Yields and the Housing Market** - Rising bond yields mean higher borrowing costs, and this time the housing market may not be insulated.
- 2 (05:18) **Factor One: Mortgages** - Households are less insulated from rate rises because fewer have long-term fixed-rate loans.
- 3 (06:43) **Factor Two: Household Finances** - The pandemic-era savings buffer that protected households has been spent.
- 4 (07:44) **Factor Three: Housing Supply** - More homes are being built now than during the 2010s, which could weigh on prices.
- 5 (08:58) **The Changed Outlook** - The host notes that the tone has shifted from cautious optimism to real worry about the housing market.
- 6 (11:10) **Australia's Social Media Ban: Checking In** - The world's first ban on under-16s having social media accounts has had little real-world impact.
- 7 (13:06) **Why the Ban Hasn't Worked** - Early evidence shows the ban has been mostly ineffective, with 85% of under-16s still using the same platforms.
+ Full timestamped outline available in the app
Guests on this episode
Show Notes
Rich-world house prices survived the last fit of interest-rate rises; our correspondent lays out why they may not this time. Nine months after Australia banned social media for under-16s, we ask if anything has changed. And a critical look at Israel’s hit show “Fauda” as it tackles the atrocities of October 7th.
Guests and host:
- Callum Williams, senior economics writer
- Josh Spencer, Asia news editor
- Andrew Miller, special correspondent
- Jason Palmer, co-host of “The Intelligence”
Topics covered:
- housing markets, bond yields, interest rates
- Australia, social media bans
- “Fauda”, October 7th
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