Drone truth: Russia has the upper hand

On a street in Kyiv, Alex Turner of The Economist heard an unusual sound—"the buzz of old shit drones have a two-stroke petrol. It kind of sounds like a flying scooter." He looked up and caught "this very distinctive triangular shape beetling along." One of the Shahed drones was shot down; another impacted nearby. Most Ukrainians were "relatively unfazed," but the episode illustrated a grim new reality: the war has entered a phase where Russia, not Ukraine, holds the advantage in drone and missile innovation, and the entire country now feels the effects.

The shift in Russia's strike capability

Two connected changes define the current moment. First, Russia has gained the upper hand in both innovation and production scale of strike systems that can hit anywhere inside Ukraine. Second, these technologies are bringing the war to more parts of the country in ever more inventive ways. The most significant technical gain involves the Shahed drones themselves. Until recently, these were petrol-driven, relatively slow targets. Now they are jet-powered, which means they can fly higher and faster. Russian production targets are estimated at 24,000 of these drones this year; a Ukrainian intelligence official said perhaps 2,800 had been fielded so far, with only about 1,000 having struck Ukraine. "You can see this is going to get worse," Turner