Welcome to the Age of Collapse | Drew Miller | Ep. 463
August 10, 2026
AI Summary
5 min readWelcome to the Age of Collapse | Drew Miller | Ep. 463
Drew Miller, a retired Air Force colonel with a PhD from Harvard and founder of Fortitude Ranch, estimates the annual probability of a civilization-level collapse disaster at 16 to 57 percent. That range is not a prediction of doom for its own sake—it is a calculated assessment based on converging technological threats, government dysfunction, and historical patterns of civilizational decline. Miller defines collapse as an event where the economy stops functioning, people cannot go to work, and law and order breaks down because most citizens are unprepared and will resort to stealing or worse to survive. A collapse is long-lasting and kills many people, distinguishing it from a localized disaster that resolves in days.
The converging threats: bioengineering, AI, and nuclear weapons
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What you'll learn
- 1 (01:28) **Defining Collapse & The Probability of Disaster** - Drew Miller defines "collapse" as a long-lasting disaster where the economy stops, law and order breaks down, and many people die, and states the annual probability is 16-57%.
- 2 (08:07) **Government Complicity and Gain-of-Function Research** - The conversation shifts to the U.S. funding gain-of-function research in China, with Miller arguing the government is out of control and not held accountable.
- 3 (13:53) **The Broken Incentives of Government** - Miller argues that the government's primary job is to protect citizens, but it is instead focused on buying votes through social programs, leaving the nation vulnerable.
- 4 (18:53) **The Existential Threat of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)** - Miller presents AGI as the most immediate and severe existential threat, with a high probability of doom according to leading experts.
- 5 (26:56) **Debating a Nuclear Response to AGI** - The host and Miller engage in a heated debate about the viability and consequences of using nuclear weapons to enforce a global AGI ban.
- 6 (36:46) **COVID-19 as a Dress Rehearsal and the China Threat** - Miller analyzes the global response to COVID-19, arguing it was a training exercise for China and a failure for the U.S., and presents China as a superior military competitor.
- 7 (50:27) **The Lost Constitution: Ninth and Tenth Amendments** - Miller explains how the Ninth and Tenth Amendments have been effectively nullified, allowing the federal government to operate without constitutional limits.
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Show Notes
Drew Miller is an Air Force Academy honor graduate with a master's and a PhD from Harvard. His dissertation was on underground nuclear shelters and field fortifications. Thirty years in uniform across active duty, Air Guard, and Reserve. Intelligence officer. Strategic Air Command, the Pentagon, and a DoD think tank. Retired colonel. He founded Fortitude Ranch, a survival community with eight locations, and the Collapse Survival Institute. His new book is Preparing to Survive in the Age of Collapse.
His model puts the annual odds of a collapse disaster between 16 and 57 percent. Bioengineered H5N1. The grid going down. The economy stops, and law and order goes with it.
We disagreed on a lot of this one. He wants superintelligent AGI outlawed and says he would nuke a data center to enforce it. I don't get there with him. We went back and forth on facts versus assumptions, on what a real fight with China looks like, and on whether this government is salvageable.
Also covered: the Ninth and Tenth Amendments, civil war inside states instead of between them, two million prisoners with no power, and surviving an AI takeover by being too boring to kill.
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