Trump's $5,000 Promise and the Iran War's Grip on the Midterms

Donald Trump kicked off the Republican midterm convention in Texas with a familiar play: another promise to send Americans money. "If the Republicans win the House of Representatives and the United States Senate," he said, "I will issue a dividend to every adult citizen in the United States of America for $5,000." The justification, according to the administration, is that tariff revenue has generated $300 billion, which could fund roughly $1.3 trillion in dividend checks. But as Krystal and Saagar noted, this is the third major "I will just give you money" promise Trump has made — following the never-delivered DOGE check and the tariff rebate check — and the trust deficit is now the central problem. "Number one, it's not happening," Saagar said flatly. "Number two, I don't think people will believe that it's going to happen because there have been a lot of promises made that have not been kept." Krystal pointed out the irony: "You do have control right now. So how about you go ahead if this is something you're serious about?" Catherine Rampell captured the absurdity on social media, noting that $5,000 would be just enough to offset the price increases from the expiring ACA subsidies. The broader political problem, Saagar argued, is that Trump could have passed stimulus checks in 2020 and likely won reelection —