8/26/26: Professor Pape Ridicules Bessent's D-Day, MAGA Influencer Caught Working for Pentagon, Beef Controversy w/ Dan Osborn

August 26, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

The Escalation Trap: Why Economic Sanctions Don't End Wars

Professor Robert Pape of the University of Chicago joined Breaking Points to argue that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's new sanctions regime on Iran is not an alternative to war but a path toward more of it. Pape, who has studied economic blockades and sanctions since World War I, delivered a blunt historical verdict: "Economic blockades and economic sanctions have never, never on their own won a major war. They've never toppled a government on their own, a major government in a major war, and they have never led to capitulation of that government to the coercer's demands."

The Historical Record on Sanctions

Pape walked through the major cases. In World War I, the British blockade of Germany did not stop a messy ground war. In World War II, massive economic sanctions and the U.S. blockade on Japan did not prevent Pearl Harbor—in fact, the sanctions helped provoke it. Against Saddam Hussein in the 1990s, sanctions dropped Iraq's GDP by 48 percent each year for twelve straight years, yet the U.S. still had to invade with 150,000 ground forces. Iran has faced sanctions for decades with no result. Russia, after invading Ukraine, faced sweeping sanctions and kept fighting.

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What you'll learn

1 (02:35) **Scott Bessent's Sanctions Plan as an Escalation Trap** - Pape argues Bessent's "maximum pressure" sanctions on Iran are not an off-ramp to war but a path to further escalation.
2 (06:26) **China's Response and the Limits of US Power** - Pape analyzes China's likely response to Bessent's threats, noting the risks of a sanctions war.
3 (08:41) **South Korea's Shifting Opinion and Nuclear Fears** - Pape explains the sharp decline in South Korean favorability of the US and the potential for a nuclear domino effect.
4 (12:06) **Prospects for Peaceful Coexistence in Asia** - Pape discusses whether a US withdrawal could lead to regional peace, suggesting it is possible but difficult.
5 (14:25) **The New Saudi Security Arrangement and Iran's Rise** - Pape connects the Saudi-Turkey-Pakistan security pact to Iran's trajectory as a "fourth center of world power."
6 (16:06) **Iran's Offensive Strategy: Squeezing the US Economy** - Pape challenges the "stalemate" narrative, arguing Iran is actively on offense to wreck the Trump presidency.
7 (21:45) **MAGA Influencer Exposed as Pentagon Employee** - Krystal and Saagar dissect the story of a prominent MAGA influencer who was simultaneously a paid special government employee at the Pentagon.

+ Full timestamped outline available in the app

Show Notes

Professor Pape returns to talk South Korea and sanctions failing, then a MAGA influencer caught working for the Pentagon. After we speak to Nebraska Senate candidate Dan Osborn about U.S. ranchers upset over Trump's Beef import deal, and finally Ryan gives a touching tribute to the music legend Dolly Parton.

Professor Pape: https://substack.com/@professorrobertpape

Dan Osborn: https://www.osbornforsenate.com/

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