5/13/26: GOP Midterm Bloodbath, Trump's Oligarch Trip To China, Prof Pape On China Advancing Rapidly

May 13, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

Krystal and Saagar discuss a new Atlas Intel poll signaling major trouble for Republicans ahead of midterms, Trump's high-profile trip to China accompanied by top U.S. CEOs, and Professor Robert Pape's analysis of China's surging AI and industrial capabilities, all framed against U.S. economic and strategic challenges post-Iran war.

GOP Faces Midterm Collapse in Polling

Atlas Intel, accurate in 2022 and 2024 elections, shows Democrats leading the generic House ballot by 14.5 points—a margin that overcomes gerrymandering or voter suppression concerns, per Krystal. This aligns with special elections averaging 15-point Democratic shifts, the most predictive midterm indicator historically. Saagar notes Democrats lead on nearly every issue, including Republican strongholds like inflation (+17 Dems), jobs (+15), trade/tariffs (+13), and even crime (+3). Trump's approval drags Republicans, with his base (about one-third of voters) locked in but independents and non-MAGA Republicans fleeing, echoing 2010's midterm shellacking after Obama's first year.

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What you'll learn

1 (02:08) **Atlas Intel Midterm Poll** - Bombshell generic ballot shows Democrats leading Republicans by 14.5 points for House control
2 (03:49) **Issue Polling Breakdown** - Democrats lead on every major issue including GOP strongholds like economy (+17), inflation (+15), trade (+13)
3 (04:38) **Trump's Drag on GOP Midterms** - Trump unconcerned with domestic issues, fixated on foreign obsessions like Venezuela, Iran
4 (07:44) **Historical Parallels** - GOP decline mirrors post-Watergate Dems or Hoover-era Republicans, opening space for broad coalitions
5 (10:41) **2028 Dem Primary Poll** - AOC leads at 26%, ahead of Buttigieg (22%), Newsom (21%), Harris (13%)
6 (12:14) **Progressive Primary Surges** - Abdul El-Sayed leads Michigan Senate poll at 28% with 80% youth support; Golden crushes Maine establishment
7 (13:46) **Primary Risks and Calendar** - Doubts on AOC/Kamala surviving scrutiny; DNC may rig calendar for establishment like South Carolina first

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Show Notes

Krystal and Saagar discuss GOP midterm bloodbath, Trump brings oligarchs on China trip, Professor Pape says China is eating our lunch as US empire declines.

Andy Browne: https://www.semafor.com/author/andy-browne

Semafor: https://www.semafor.com/vertical/china

Robert Pape: https://escalationtrap.substack.com/

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