4/13/26: Trump Blockades Hormuz Strait, Negotiations Break Down, Gas Prices Spike

The episode covers the breakdown of US-Iran talks in Islamabad and President Trump's decision to impose a naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, along with the resulting pressure on global oil flows and domestic gas prices. It also includes analysis of military realities, expert views on possible next steps, and the limited options for de-escalation.

Breakdown of the Negotiations

Talks in Islamabad lasted roughly 21 hours and produced agreement on most points, but collapsed over the US demand for zero Iranian uranium enrichment and the dismantling of major nuclear facilities. Iranian negotiators described the final US position as a shift in goalposts after an informal memorandum of understanding had nearly been reached. JD Vance participated but repeatedly consulted Trump by phone, leaving little room for on-site compromise. Iranian officials stated they would not accept terms that eliminated their latent nuclear deterrent, citing prior attacks on their territory and the fate of other regimes that relinquished such capabilities. Trump publicly described the Iranian side as having “no cards” and predicted they would return to the table with full concessions.

The Naval Blockade Decision